Friday, October 21, 2022

Week 8 October 22, 2022 Biggest Games for NCAA Football

Best Picks for Week 8 By Tom Fornelli It has been a rough couple of weeks for The Six Pack. We followed up a 1-5 performance in Week 6 with a 2-4 performance last week. While one of our wins was LSU's upset over Florida, which helped offset some of the losses, we've still dug ourselves quite a hole on the season -- a hole I'm ready to start digging out of. I just want to say one thing to the readers and everybody in Six Pack Nation: I'm sorry. Extremely sorry. I was hoping for an undefeated season. That was my goal. It's something The Six Pack has never done here. But I promise you one thing: a lot of good will come out of this. You have never seen any writer in the country pick games as hard as I will pick games the rest of this season, and you'll never see someone push these teams as hard as I will push them the rest of this season. You'll never see a picks column pick harder than this picks column will the rest of the season. Trust the Process. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Games of the Week Featured Game | Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins Powered by Caesars Sportsbook Moneyline Spread Total OREG -235 -6.5 -110 o70.5 -110 UCLA +192 +6.5 -110 u70.5 -110 No. 9 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon: Raise your hand if you looked at the schedule over the summer and pointed to this game as a top-10 matchup. The Ducks have rebounded well from their opening-week annihilation at the hands of Georgia, and UCLA has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Now, both meet in Eugene in a game that could easily decide one of the two available spots in the Pac-12 Championship Game (it could also be a rematch). My heart and mind tell me we're going to see a lot of points scored in this game. Oregon and UCLA both do an excellent job offensively on first and second down, which puts them in a great position on third, and sometimes, fourth down. It's no surprise, then, that they have two of the best offenses on third and fourth down. But guess what? Defensively, they're both bad on third and fourth downs! Oregon's defense has been porous in general, particularly against the pass, but neither one of these teams does a good job of getting off the field. So, we have two offenses that are excellent at moving the chains against two defenses that can't get off the field. Does that sound like the kind of combination that leads to stops? Oregon 41, UCLA 37 | Over 69.5 Featured Game | TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Powered by Caesars Sportsbook Moneyline Spread Total TCU -170 -3.5 -105 o53 -110 KSTATE +143 +3.5 -115 u53 -110 No. 17 Kansas State at No. 8 TCU: The letdown has to come at some point, right? I keep waiting for it with TCU. I expected it last week, and for a while it looked as if I might be right. The Horned Frogs fell behind 24-7 against Oklahoma State before battling back and winning 43-40 in overtime. The Horned Frogs have now beaten rival SMU, throttled Oklahoma by 31, outlasted Kansas and knocked off a top-10 team in Oklahoma State, all in four consecutive weeks. Either TCU is a much better team than any of us anticipated -- it very well might be, but it had a preseason win total of 6.5 -- or things will begin to even out soon. At the risk of being labeled a hater, the latter is the more likely scenario, particularly with a defense that has shown to be porous. Furthermore, there are extremely high winds expected for this game, which will have a more significant impact on TCU's offense than Kansas State's. The Kansas State offense will also provide a unique challenge for this Horned Frogs defense. The Wildcats can use their rushing attack to keep the TCU offense off the field and the game close, so I'm taking the points. TCU 28, Kansas State 27 | Kansas State +3.5 Lock of the Week Featured Game | Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Powered by Caesars Sportsbook Moneyline Spread Total WISC -135 -2.5 -110 o51 -110 PURDUE +115 +2.5 -110 u51 -110 Purdue at Wisconsin: Yeah, this line is disrespectful to Purdue, and according to most Purdue fans, I hate the Boilermakers. So if I think they're being disrespected, imagine how they feel. One of the great ironies about Wisconsin's subpar season is that defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard was handed the keys to the program during the season his defense has failed to meet its usual standard. The Badgers have been abused on first and second downs, and a pass rush that was once fierce is pretty tame (they are 41st in pressure rate). That's not a great combination against one of the few Big Ten teams that's happy to drop back and test you vertically in the passing game. Purdue should find success in the passing game and put Wisconsin in the uncomfortable position of having to score points and keep up. While the Badgers are still effective on the ground with Braelon Allen, the Purdue defense has been much better against the run than the pass. The Boilermakers can put Wisconsin in third-and-long situations, which will not work in the Badgers' favor. Purdue wins this one more often than not, but I'll happily play it a little safer with the points, too. Purdue 27, Wisconsin 24 | Purdue +2.5 Under of the Week Featured Game | Army West Point Black Knights vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Powered by Caesars Sportsbook Moneyline Spread Total ARMY -250 -6.5 -110 o55.5 -110 LAMON +205 +6.5 -110 u55.5 -110 Louisiana-Monroe at Army: These are two of the most deliberate offenses in the country. Army ranks as the 121st "quickest" offense in the country and ULM is 118th, according to my pace metric. As if moving slowly isn't enough, both teams run the ball often. Army ranks second nationally with a rush rate of 82.6%, but while ULM only ranks 44th at 54.3%, it runs the ball 60.1% of the time on first down, giving you an idea of what it likes to do in an ideal situation. While this game won't be the same thing as our beloved Service Academy Unders, it will likely play out in a similar fashion. I was genuinely surprised to see the total listed as high as it is, because my numbers say the total should be closer to 48. Army 27, ULM 21 | Under 55.5 Birds of the Week Featured Game | Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Powered by Caesars Sportsbook Moneyline Spread Total ODU -140 -2.5 -110 o67 -110 GAS +118 +2.5 -110 u67 -110 Georgia Southern at Old Dominion: Georgia Southern is good. When the Eagles beat Nebraska earlier this season and put the final dagger into Scott Frost's tenure, it was viewed as a huge upset. As the season has gone on, however, the Eagles have shown it wasn't as crazy of a result as you'd think. They hung tough in losses on the road at UAB, Coastal Carolina and Georgia State, and last week they beat an undefeated James Madison team that had cracked the AP Top 25. Of course, Old Dominion is coming off a pretty big upset of its own, crushing Coastal 49-21 in one of the more surprising results of the season. Coastal had no answer for Monarchs running back Blake Watson, but that performance was an outlier. Before last week, Old Dominion's offense had not had a success rate higher than 36.5% in any game, nor did it average more than 1.71 points per drive in a game. Against Coastal, it had a success rate of 67.3% and averaged 5.44 points per possession. While Georgia Southern has problems defensively, it's improved a little every week and has just been the more consistent team all season long. I'm betting on consistency. Georgia Southern 34, Old Dominion 31 | Georgia Southern +2.5 Upset of the Week Featured Game | Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncos Powered by Caesars Sportsbook Moneyline Spread Total AF -135 -2 -110 o47.5 -110 BOISE +115 +2 -110 u47.5 -110 Boise State at Air Force: Simply put, Boise State is a different team with Taylen Green at QB than it was with Hank Bachmeier. (Elevating Dirk Koetter to offensive coordinator has helped, too.) I said the same thing about Utah State when it made the switch from Logan Bonner to Cooper Legas at QB, and then the Aggies went out and beat Air Force 34-27. With Bachmeier at QB, Boise's offense had a success rate of 37.5% and averaged 1.59 points per possession. With Green, those numbers have improved to 39.2% and 2.88. The team's EPA (expected points added) per snap on offense has jumped from -0.13 to 0.09. It's a much better team now, and the numbers haven't caught on yet. While Green can be hit-or-miss as a passer, he's been terrific as a rusher and gives Boise an attack that's much harder to stop. That's a problem considering Legas rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons ... and Green is a more explosive runner. Finally, while Boise's offense was a problem early in the season, it's defense has never been a problem. The Broncos have one of the best run defenses in the country and are better equipped than most to slow down the Air Force offense. Boise State 31, Air Force 17 | Boise State (+140)
This Weeks Biggest Games October 22, 2022 According to ESPN Staff The Week 8 schedule ahead is the perfect time to check in on two Power 5 conferences that haven't gotten a lot of love this season. The Big 12 and Pac-12 have been rocked by realignment plans the past two offseasons, but the conferences currently have two of the most intriguing championship races in the country. Following a double-overtime win against Oklahoma State, TCU has taken the reins of the Big 12. It doesn't get any easier for the Horned Frogs, however, as they welcome a ranked Kansas State team to Fort Worth on Saturday. UCLA announced its plans to leave the Pac-12 this offseason, but it appears the Bruins have their eyes on a conference crown before jumping ship. Standing in their way is a top-10 Oregon team that has bounced back from an opening week blowout loss to Georgia. The top-10 matchup in Eugene will go a long way in deciding which of these teams will be making a Pac-12 championship game appearance -- if not both. Of course, the SEC and ACC also have ranked matchups this week that will define the teams' seasons. Clemson meets upstart Syracuse, while both Mississippi State and Alabama are looking to bounce back after losses. Oh, and Ole Miss travels to LSU in an age-old rivalry. Plenty to keep track of this week; here are the top storylines from the best games. No. 9 UCLA Bruins at No. 10 Oregon Ducks (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox) The script that's been written for this matchup has all the makings of a good one before the first snap is even taken: two top-10 teams each coming off bye weeks. UCLA coach Chip Kelly returning to Oregon, where he was head coach for four seasons. UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bo Nix going head-to-head. GameDay on site. The winner gaining the inside track to the Pac-12 championship. "We know it's going to be electric here, and that's something we can count on to our advantage," Oregon safety Bennett Williams said. "We live for games like this," Thompson-Robinson said. While Kelly has gone above and beyond to eliminate the emotion from this matchup, it's safe to say every Oregon coach since Kelly left for the NFL has had to work in the shadow of what Kelly did in green. Dan Lanning is the latest, and he knows he's going up against an offense that is starting to show shades of those Ducks teams under Kelly, especially when it comes to the quarterback. "We really haven't played anybody quite like him, in my opinion," Lanning said this week. "He's a dynamic player. Any time he touches the ball, it can turn into an explosive play. So that's showing up for them." Lanning said he's seen similarities between DTR and the Ducks' Nix in terms of how they're executing each offense's vision from game to game. The stats bear out some similarities as well. Both have thrown for over 1,500 yards so far this season; Thompson-Robinson has 15 touchdowns and two interceptions to Nix's 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, while Nix has run the ball for 330 yards and eight touchdowns and Thompson-Robinson has 231 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The quarterback duel is, of course, only part of the fun. Both teams lead the conference in rushing defense and are going to be facing tough matchups in UCLA's Zach Charbonnet and Oregon's Bucky Irving (who transferred from Minnesota) -- both lead the top two rushing attacks in the conference, too. Between Charbonnet, Thompson-Robinson and players like offensive lineman Jon Gaines II, among others, Kelly finds himself with a veteran team that's finally turning his process into results. It's allowed the Bruins to be in this position as the surprise team in the conference. But after beating Washington and Utah in consecutive weeks and announcing themselves as a legitimate contender, they won't be surprising anyone anymore -- especially the Ducks. -- Paolo Uggetti No. 14 Syracuse Orange at No. 5 Clemson Tigers (Saturday, noon ET, ABC/ESPN app) After Clemson's season-opening win against Georgia Tech, DJ Uiagalelei was mad. He'd actually played well, a sneak peek at what would be a remarkable turnaround in 2022, but there was one area of his game that hadn't measured up. Clemson dialed up 10 designed runs for Uiagalelei and he mustered just 38 yards. It could've been so much more. "If I'd just gotten my knees up, I could've gotten a lot more yards," he said. EDITOR'S PICKS The 2022 college football midseason All-America team 2dChris Low Ranking college football's nine remaining unbeaten teams 3dBill Connelly College Football Playoff midseason report: Key games, lessons learned and second-half storylines 3dHeather Dinich Call it prophetic. In the six games since, those yards have come. Uiagalelei's ability to run was one of Clemson's big talking points this offseason as the QB shed more than 30 pounds in a quest to be more athletic on the field. He's also gotten healthy, after dealing with a bum knee for most of last season. The results speak for themselves. Through seven games, Uiagalelei already has more yards (319) on designed runs in 2022 than he had in 13 games last season (312). Discounting sacks, Uiagalelei has rushed for 60 yards or more in four of his past five games, something he hadn't managed in any of his prior 17 starts. He's had at least eight designed runs against every FBS team he's played this season. He hit that mark just four times last year. "I love running the ball," Uiagalelei said. "For me, it's fun. It's another dimension the defense has to play. The quarterback run is another thing they have to worry about, and it opens up the running lanes for the running backs as well." And yes, the weight loss has helped considerably. Last season, Uiagalelei was responsible for just 12 missed tackles all year, according to Pro Football Focus. This year, he's already made 25 defenders look silly. "I don't believe in sliding," Uiagalelei joked this week. No one will mistake Uiagalelei for an elite runner -- like this week's opposing QB, Garrett Shrader -- but the mere threat is enough to force defenses to reconsider how they want to attack the Tigers. That's been a boon for the entire offense in 2022. "Any time you have that extra hat to run the ball, it creates tougher situations for the defense," offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter said. "Whether it influences one way and you go the other or you just load up and gain an extra blocker. There's a lot of ways to manipulate the defense when you have a guy that's willing to run and healthy enough to run. And that's what DJ has been able to do this year." -- David M. Hale No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN app) Expect the penalty flags to fly Saturday in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama's 66 accepted penalties are the most of any team in the FBS this season, while Mississippi State is tied for 26th most with 48. And while we're on the subject of driving coaches wild, look for plenty of drops, too. Alabama is tied for the most dropped passes in the FBS with 21, while Mississippi State is 30th with 14. So whoever shoots themselves in the foot least wins, right? It's obviously more complicated than that. The outcome could be decided in large part by which defense is most effective getting to the quarterback. Because Mississippi State's Will Rogers and Alabama's Bryce Young are two of the best QBs in the country this season. Rogers has thrown for the third-most passing yards in the FBS (2,324). Young, meanwhile, ranks eighth nationally in QBR (86.1). Both defenses have shown they have the ability to get into the backfield. With star edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Dallas Turner, Alabama has the highest rate of sacks per pass attempt in the SEC at 8.2%. Mississippi State, on the other hand, is in the top five of the SEC in pressure percentage, affecting 28.1% of dropbacks. "Their defense is very aggressive, creates a lot of turnovers, do a lot of pressuring the quarterback," Alabama coach Nick Saban said. And the Bulldogs can throw a lot at you. Nathaniel Watson and Tyrus Wheat are both in the top 10 in the SEC in sacks. Randy Charlton, Collin Duncan and Nathan Pickering have two sacks apiece as well. -- Alex Scarborough play 1:10 Paul Finebaum has some harsh words for Nick Saban, AlabamaPaul Finebaum calls out Nick Saban and the Alabama coaches for the team's struggles. No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels at LSU Tigers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, ever the Twitter troll, has been known to poke fun at his old boss Nick Saban at any mention of rat poison, and Kiffin has his own string of Twitter emojis symbolizing rat poison saved for whenever something gets out there on social media that might rise to that level. Well, here's an obvious one: With a win Saturday over LSU, Ole Miss can start 8-0 in a season for the first time since the 1962 SEC championship team (national champions by a few non-NCAA recognized outlets) finished 10-0. It remains the only unbeaten and untied team in school history. Now, nobody is suggesting that Ole Miss is bearing down on its first national championship in six decades, especially with the Rebels about to hit the teeth of their schedule. Three of their last five games are on the road, and the home games are against Alabama and Mississippi State. But it's an Ole Miss team that does a lot of things it takes to be in title contention. The Rebels run the ball as well as anybody. They're third nationally in rushing offense with an average of 271.4 yards per game. Quinshon Judkins (720) and Zach Evans (605) are the only pair of teammates in the country with more than 600 rushing yards each. The Rebels make big plays on offense and don't give up many on defense. They're one of three teams nationally along with Alabama and Florida State with 50 or more plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or longer and 25 or fewer plays allowed of 20 yards or longer. The Rebels also force turnovers and are tied for 13th nationally with 13 turnovers gained. Yes, all of this is rat poison. The Rebels also have a coach in Kiffin who's not going to be afraid to go for it on fourth down and has a track record of making sure his players play loose and instinctively as the games get bigger. Kiffin, whose Ole Miss team has won 11 straight regular-season games dating back to last season, said this week that LSU was the "most talented opponent by far" the Rebels have faced this season. The Tigers (5-2) have flashed that talent at different points, but they've also been wildly inconsistent. They were exposed in the offensive line (among other places) in their 40-13 beatdown by Tennessee two weeks ago. They had to rally from a 17-0 deficit at Auburn three weeks ago to win 21-17. But through some of the hiccups, Brian Kelly has been able to hold it together enough that LSU has won five of its past six games after the season-opening loss to Florida State. The latest was a 45-35 win at Florida last week, the Tigers' highest-scoring output against an FBS team this season with quarterback Jayden Daniels accounting for six touchdowns and 349 passing yards. LSU is hopeful that running back Armoni Goodwin (hamstring) can return to the lineup this week along with receiver Jack Bech. Kelly knew it would take time for Daniels to feel completely comfortable in a new system, especially in the passing game. It was Daniels' assertiveness in the Florida game that jumped out most to Kelly, who's eager to see if LSU can build on the Florida win after getting embarrassed at home two weeks ago by Tennessee. "We want to be able to put together good performances back to back, and we haven't been able to do that yet," Kelly said. "It's been kind of grinding out a game." -- Chris Low No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 8 TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FS1) TCU and Kansas State are atop the Big 12 because of a redemption season for each of their quarterbacks under new offensive coordinators. Wildcats QB Adrian Martinez, a four-year starter at Nebraska, threw 45 touchdowns to 30 interceptions for the Huskers before transferring to K-State this offseason, where he has thrown for 900 yards with four TDs and zero interceptions this season. Kansas State coach Chris Klieman said new offensive coordinator Collin Klein deserves a lot of credit for his transformation. "Part of it is his maturity, the fact that he's played so much football and I think coach Klein is putting them in some really good situations and calls to be successful and us trying to stay ahead of the chains and not being in a bunch of third-and-eight-plus, where you might typically force the ball, and being in a lot more third and shorts," Klieman said. "It opens up the playbook a little bit more and he's making good decisions." TCU's Max Duggan, who threw 41 touchdowns to 20 interceptions in his first three seasons in Fort Worth, has thrown for 1,591 yards with 16 touchdowns and one interception under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. "I think it's a credit to where Duggan is at and how he's playing because he's making them go," Klieman said. Horned Frogs coach Sonny Dykes said Duggan will have to continue to be efficient because Kansas State controls the time of possession and TCU won't have that many opportunities. The Wildcats have called designed run plays on 57% of their snaps. "We still have too many three-and-outs," Dykes said, despite TCU scoring a touchdown on 46% of its offensive drives, the fifth-highest rate in FBS. "We're not going to get many opportunities, so we have to be able to take advantage." To his point, Kansas State has allowed a TD on just 13% of its opponents drives, eighth best in the FBS. The winner will be in the driver's seat down the stretch in the Big 12 race, with one of these two teams suffering its first conference loss Saturday. -- Dave Wilson

No comments: