Ohio State Football Remaining Games, Odds, Predictions, Schedules
Phil Harrison
October 17, 2022 7:00 am ET
The Ohio State football team enjoyed an off-week for Week 6 and it was a much-needed one to get some of its most impactful players that were nursing injuries some time to heal.
Six games into the season and it’s pretty clear that all the goals Ohio State had at the beginning of the campaign are still in play, including a Big Ten championship and a potential berth into the College Football Playoff. But with the season half the way over, OSU has to finish the deal.
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ESPN updates its matchup predictor for every game for every FBS team every week and we like to follow. It’s time to check in again after a week where Ohio State sat idly by to watch Michigan make a statement against Penn State, and Illinois and Purdue seem to separate themselves in the West a wee bit.
Have any of the percentages changed? Is Ohio State still favored to win all of its games in the regular season? Here’s what the ESPN FPI says about each of the remaining games on the Buckeyes’ schedule the rest of the way.
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa
Credit: USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 95.5% (⇑ from 95.3%)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 46-15-3
Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Beaver Stadium (State College, PA)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 83.1% (⇑ from 80.1%)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 22-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern
Oct 16, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald looks on in the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Ryan Field. Credit: Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Ryan Field (Evanston, IL)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 98.7% (⇑ from 98.6%)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 64-14-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 98.3% (⇓ from 98.5%)
All-Time Series |OSU leads 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Sep 10, 2022; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Maryland Terrapins wide receiver Octavian Smith Jr. (15) and quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. (9) celebrate his touchdown against the Charlotte 49ers during the second half at Jerry Richardson Stadium. Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Maryland Stadium (College Park, MD)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 86.2% (⇑ from 85.2%)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (6) celebrates his score against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors during first-half action at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
How it all breaks down
Venue | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 75.1% (⇓ from 77.4%)
All-Time Series |OSU trails 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
FIVE THINGS:
By Chris Lauderback
Ryan Day's football team took the weekend off in what was a well-timed gap in the schedule to get healthier after winning its first six games by an average of 33 points.
On offense, Quarterback C.J. Stroud is a Heisman front-runner, the 1-2 punch at tailback is playing out nicely behind a strong offensive line and despite missing wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the receiving corps has been in great hands with Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. blowing up.
Defensively, the Buckeyes seem to have made meaningful strides over last season thanks in large part to new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles although it's fair to say they really haven't been tested.
That'll probably be the case next weekend versus Iowa too but better offenses will be coming down the line.
But we'll get to the Hawkeyes later this week, for now here are Five Things at the midpoint of Ohio State's regular season slate.
GET A TO, BABY
OSU TAKEAWAYS PER SEASON
SEASON TAKEAWAYS
2022 (6 G) 5
2021 20
2020 (8 G) 19
2019 25
2018 23
2017 24
2016 27
2015 21
2014 33
2013 24
2012 21
Entering yesterday's games, Ohio State's defense ranked an unimpressive No. 104 in the country in takeaways, with only five through six contests.
The Buckeyes have shown signs of life as of late however, producing at least one turnover in each of the last four games after recording zero in the first two against Notre Dame and Arkansas State.
Ohio State also has interceptions in each of the last three games with linebacker Steele Chambers and safeties Ronnie Hickman and Lathan Ransom making big plays.
Takeaways can be the result of skill or dumb luck so it's a bit hard to put a ton of stock into the numbers but no doubt Ohio State has certainly been more opportunistic on defense the last month.
Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ohio State's defenses never failed to produce at least 20 takeaways since 2012.
We'll see if that means turnovers could be coming in bunches down the stretch.
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TWO GOOD
Playing without JSN for virtually the entire season-to-date, the pressure's been on Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr. to get down the business and the duo's done exactly that.
Before yesterday's games, Egbuka ranked No. 4 in the country averaging 109.2 receiving yards per game. The sophomore went for over 100 yards in four of six games and scored at least one touchdown in five.
For his part, Route Man Marv has looked like a future-NFL star with his ridiculous catch radius and body control creating an impressive highlight reel including three multi-touchdown performances, two of which saw him snag three scoring strikes.
With Egbuka clocking in at 35 catches for 655 yards and Harrison rocking 35 grabs for 536 yards at the midway point of the regular season, each guy is on track to break the 1,000-yard barrier before postseason play begins.
Egbuka and Harrison would become just the second OSU duo to each break the 1,000-yard receiving barrier after JSN and Garrett Wilson did so a year ago.
Of course if/when JSN comes back that might decrease the duo's production a bit as Stroud spreads the ball around but even if it does cut into their production, you have to think Ohio State will be better for it.
SO FRESH AND SO CLEAN
After racking up seven penalties for 75 yards against Notre Dame and then another nine flags for 85 yards against Arkansas State in game two, Day made it a point in his presser before game three to lament the self-inflicted woods, calling them ridiculous.
OSU PENALTIES PER GAME UNDER DAY
SEASON PENALTIES/GAME NATL RANK
2022 (6 G) 5.0 23
2021 6.5 79
2020 6.1 70
2019 5.8 50
Against Toledo that Saturday, the Buckeyes committed just one penalty for five yards. The next week against Wisconsin resulted in only three for 27 yards. Game five versus Rutgers spiked to six flags for a respectable 41 yards and the Buckeyes committed only four penalties, for 49 yards, against Michigan State.
Add it up and after Day's squad racked up 16 penalties for 160 yards over the first two games, the Buckeyes committed just 14 penalties for 122 yards over the last four contests. That's an average of 3.5 flags for 30.5 yards per game over the last month.
The improved discipline had Ohio State ranked No. 23 in the land with 5.0 penalties per game entering yesterday's action. Since Day took over in 2019, the Buckeyes have never ranked better than 50th in penalties per game over a full season (5.8 in 2019).
RELATED The 10 Biggest Surprises From The First Half Of OSU's Regular Season Slate
RED HOT
While Ohio State's defense last season was bad across the board, it was especially awful in the red zone where opponents scored points 85.7% of the time (No. 88 nationally) and more importantly, scored touchdowns 73.8% of the time, which ranked No. 124 out of 130 teams.
So far this season, the Buckeyes rank a not-great 116th in red zone scoring percentage (90.9%) but additional context makes this feel a hell of a lot better.
First, heading into yesterday's games, Ohio State's defense had let just 11 possessions enter the red zone (10 scores), good for No. 6 in the country.
Second, Of those 10 scores in 11 trips, just five were touchdowns, giving the Buckeyes a 45.5% red zone touchdown rate allowed which stood as the 20th-best mark through six games.
With the Buckeyes proving stiffer in the red zone, along with other factors of course, they ranked No. 15 in scoring defense, allowing 15.7 points per game compared to 22.8 last season.
LET'S GET PHYSICAL
The open weekend gave the Ohio State staff and players a chance to take in college action on Saturday and I have to believe Penn State at Michigan was appointment viewing for many.
In a matchup of top-10 teams, Michigan smoked the Nittany Lions, 41-17, thanks to a 25-3 burst after halftime fueled by an impressive rushing attack.
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy didn't strike fear (17-of-24, 145 yards, pick six) but the Wolverines demoralized James Franklin's defense which was ranked in the top-5 in rushing yards allowed per game (79.8) and No. 13 in yards per carry allowed (2.96).
Led by the tandem of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, the Wolverines rushed for 418 yards on 7.6 per carry with four touchdowns.
Coming into yesterday, Michigan was a top-20 running game in both yards per attempt and yards per game which is certainly respectable but not dominant. Versus Penn State's top-13 run defense however, the run blocking looked sensational with Corum and Edwards constantly getting the second-level untouched.
Of course how this matters to Ohio State is the Buckeyes entered yesterday's games as a top-15 defense in both yards per carry (2.97) and yards per game allowed (93.2) - very similar to Penn State on paper. And it sure feels like both the Buckeyes and Michigan are going to enter this year's edition of The Game as 11-0 programs.
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