NBA MVP Race as of January 16th, 2009

I have to agree with hollinger's top 4 picks, but not the particular order he has them in right now. Obviously, LeBron is number one in almost everyone's mvp poll. I cannot agree with Chris Paul being number two. I saw him in action Friday night versus LeBron and company. CP3 did not compare to be on the same level as LeBron. maybe James is that good right now, but Paul is not close to number two on my ballot. Kobe should be number two and should of gained some votes after the thumping they put on the Cavs. Everyone I agree with, but I would give Danny Granger some props right now for MVP.


John Hollingers Picks for NBA MVP as of Jan. 16th. www.espn.com
Choose this season's All-NBA team, and it's pretty much cut and dried which five names you'll settle on: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. Sure, you could nitpick about the lack of a true power forward and argue for Tim Duncan or Chris Bosh, and you might hem and haw for about 0.8 seconds about somebody like Brandon Roy for the backcourt, but ultimately, these are the five on which you'll settle. Since we're almost halfway through the NBA season, it seems like a good time to examine the MVP race -- because these four are likely to be 1, 2, 3 and 4, in some order, on nearly every MVP ballot come April.
Here's how I size it up at the halfway post:

4. Kobe Bryant, Lakers. Right now, he's No. 4, but it comes with one big, fat asterisk we'll talk about in a moment.
First, the facts: Bryant is fifth in player efficiency rating going into Friday's games, with the three other players on this list all outpacing him, and while he's been an asset at the defensive end, he hasn't been the imposing force Orlando's Howard (or, I would argue, James) has become.
The best line on his résumé right now is 31-7 -- that's L.A.'s record, the best in the league. Should the Lakers beat Orlando on Friday night and Cleveland on Monday, they'll have a strong leg up in the race for the top overall playoff seed.
On the other hand, the Lakers are only fourth in the power rankings, which is a nice way of saying they probably need to play better if they want to keep the Magic and the Cavs in their rearview mirror.
Now, about that asterisk -- one reason Bryant has a shot at repeating as MVP is his strong second-half trend throughout his career. Check out his splits over the past several seasons, and you'll see he consistently plays much better from January to March than in the first couple of months.
As much as any player in the league, Bryant manages himself during the season and slowly dials it up as the season progresses, then takes it down a notch in April to warm up for the playoffs. If he follows that trend this season, and if the Lakers finish with the league's best record, he has a shot at repeating.

3. Dwight Howard, Magic. Howard is ahead of Bryant in PER by a smidgeon, but the bigger reason to rate him ahead of Bryant is his defense. While three of Orlando's five starters aren't exactly renowned for being shut-down defenders, the Magic are third in the league in defensive efficiency.
That's a tribute to Howard's ability to shut down the middle and dominate the boards -- he is second in rebounding and leads the league by a wide margin in blocks. Plus, he's been able to do it while avoiding fouls and staying on the court. Howard averages 36.2 minutes per game -- just as many as Bryant -- which is rare for a big man.
And of course, he's as important to the offense as to the defense. Even when he isn't scoring, he's allowing the Orlando 3-point brigade to bomb away because of all the attention he draws in the middle. Now if he could just make foul shots -- that 58.0 percent from the stripe might keep him from the MVP award.

2. Chris Paul, Hornets. I felt a little weird about this one because the Hornets haven't quite lived up to the expectations some had for them this season … and because the three other players on this list are on the teams with the league's three best records … and because Paul, defensively, isn't on par with the three other players, even though he leads the league in steals.
But I have to put him here anyway, because he's been so spectacularly good in carrying the Hornets to what might be the No. 2 seed in the West -- even though the bench is terrible, Tyson Chandler is having a bad season and he has no backup. The Hornets somehow are No. 5 in the power rankings despite all that, and while it's a distant fifth, it would be more like 20th if Paul weren't around.
He is second in the league in PER and, in fact, his 30.53 mark will be among the best of all time if he can maintain it the entire season. In addition to leading the league in assists and steals, his true shooting percentage of 60.1 is phenomenal, considering how much offensive responsibility he has, while his 8.8 rebound rate is unbelievable for a 6-0 point guard -- he's outrebounding Danny Granger, Bryant, Wade, Ron Artest, Vince Carter, Roy, Thaddeus Young, Hedo Turkoglu, Richard Jefferson and Josh Howard, among others.

1. LeBron James, Cavaliers. Because James is playing fewer minutes than usual, people might not realize what a historic season he's having. The decline in playing time has resulted in a dip in his per-game averages, but in terms of efficiency, he's never been better.
In fact, one could argue nobody has ever been better.
At 32.09 going into Friday's games, James is on pace to put up the best PER of all time. Yes, better than any of Michael Jordan's seasons (his 31.70 in 1987-88 is the current gold standard). We're halfway through the season now, so we can't just write it off to a hot start -- James has a serious shot at setting a new mark.
He also is the lone star on the team that is No. 1 in the power rankings, tops in the Eastern Conference standings over the NBA champs and set to post one of the top all-time scoring margins (the Cavs currently are winning by 11.9 points per game; Jordan's 1995-96 Bulls and the 1971-72 Lakers were at plus-12.3).
The Cavs also are the league's top defensive team, and James has been a huge part of the success there as well -- he is averaging 2.0 steals and 1.3 blocks, and has improved by leaps and bounds as an individual defender, as everyone saw when he shut down Paul Pierce in the showdown against Boston on Jan. 9.
So while his team doesn't have the league's best record at the moment, and while James' scoring average is down nearly three points from last season, don't let it fool you. Both he and his team have posted a truly historic first half of the season, and if they keep it up for three more months, there's little doubt who will be the MVP.

Top 50: Kobe or not Kobe? That is the first question ...

Top 50: Kobe or not Kobe? That is the first question ...

Who would you rather have, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James?
What about between LeBron and Chris Paul? And so it goes.
Here, then, is who we'd rather have -- our top 50 NBA players:

1. Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers: It's a tough call taking Bryant ahead of LeBron, but Kobe gets the nod because he's more skilled than James and because he has had more professional success.

2. LeBron James, Cleveland: James remains the future of the league, but he still needs work on his 3-point and free throw shooting. Yes, we're nit-picking, but that's what you do with the greats.

3. Chris Paul, New Orleans: Paul had every right to garner MVP votes last year. You could make the case that Paul is every bit as important to his team as anyone on this list.

4. Tim Duncan, San Antonio: Duncan is barely holding on to this spot. He's on the downside of his career, his team seems to be at a crossroads and he can't play the minutes he used to. We'll still take him on our team anytime.

5. Deron Williams, Utah: No doubt, many will think this is too high for Williams. As great as Paul is, we're still not giving him the long-term nod over Williams. Not yet anyway.

6. Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix: If new coach Terry Porter can get Stoudemire to buy in on the defensive end, Stoudemire is likely to end up in the MVP discussion.

7. Yao Ming, Houston: All indications are that Yao will bounce back fine from the stress fracture in his left foot. If he does, he goes right back to being one of the most dominant big men in the NBA.

8. Kevin Garnett, Boston: With an NBA title, his résumé is complete. The real question is how long K.G. can play at this level. Garnett is only 32, but it's an old 32 -- with 13 seasons under his belt and more than 70 playoff games.

9. Dwight Howard, Orlando: He might be the NBA's most dynamic specimen, but there are concerns about whether he'll ever have the skill level to be a consistent offensive player in the low post.

10. Chris Bosh, Toronto: All signs are pointing to a big year for Bosh. He was terrific in Olympic play and seemed to play a leadership role on that team. Will he be able to help Jermaine O'Neal get his career back on track?

11. Paul Pierce, Boston: Pierce might not be the best player on the Celtics, but he's the toughest. Pierce makes a lot of big plays -- and shots -- for Boston, and he seems to come through late in the game most of the time.

12. Dwyane Wade, Miami: Wade sure looked healthy during the Olympics, but the issue is whether the knee and shoulder can hold up for an entire season.

13. Steve Nash, Phoenix: He's not as good as he was two or three years ago, but he's still better than most point guards. Nash has never been great defensively, and he has gotten worse lately. Nash has another year or two of open window.

14. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas: Nowitzki is still in full recovery mode after consecutive first-round playoff eliminations. He was exposed in the postseason two seasons ago against the Warriors, and he still hasn't made it back to where he was.

15. Carmelo Anthony, Denver: You get the sense Anthony is at a turning point in his career. Let's hope he feels the same way. With Allen Iverson fading, it's Anthony's time. Can he go from star to superstar?

16. Tracy McGrady, Houston: When he's good, he's good. When he's not good, it's usually because he's hurt. Injuries, ailments, aches and pains are the story with McGrady, and everybody knows it. If he can play 70-plus, it's all good.

17. Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers: We go back to the initial question: Who would you rather have? Bynum was starting to show some scary potential last year before his injury. Offensively, he's well ahead of Dwight Howard.

18. Gilbert Arenas, Washington: If the old Gilbert shows up after his surgeries (how many have there been now?), then move him up to No. 10 on this list. But this many procedures at this age isn't a good thing.

19. Baron Davis, L.A. Clippers: Both Don Nelson and Chris Mullin referred to Davis as a "top 15" player on Thursday. When Davis is clicking, he's very close. We'll put him in the top 20.

20. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio: There are other shooting guards who get more attention than Ginobili. Iverson and Michael Redd would be two, for example, but they have nothing on Ginobili.

21. Shaquille O'Neal, Phoenix: In the 52 regular-season games that O'Neal plays this year for the Suns, he'll be a top-five center. Seems like you can't read a sentence about O'Neal anymore that doesn't begin: "When he's healthy, O'Neal can ..." Of course, that's the issue: When is he healthy?

22. Tony Parker, San Antonio: Parker is a top-level point guard, but he's not quite in the class of the ones above him. Those other guys carry more of a load. In other words, Parker represents the top of Tier 2 when it comes to PGs.

23. Joe Johnson, Atlanta: Johnson is one of the purest shooters in the NBA, and he's capable of playing three positions. With Mike Bibby at the point, he'll get most of his minutes at shooting guard this season.

24. Brandon Roy, Portland: Few players can give you all the things Roy can. He can score for you, run your offense if need be and pick up some rebounds along the way. And there's a nasty streak under the surface.

25. Carlos Boozer, Utah: Boozer is one of the league's most consistent power forwards, but he lacks that something special to get to the next level. Twenty and 10 every night is nothing to scoff at. But everyone higher on this list does more.

26. Pau Gasol, L.A. Lakers: Gasol is pretty darn good, but you keep wanting him to be a little bit better. He was never quite dominant in Memphis and, of course, he's less so with the Lakers.

27. Greg Oden, Portland: We have yet to see Greg Oden play in an NBA game. Still, if the scouting reports are correct and he can in fact rebound, defend and block shots, then that makes him one of the game's best centers.

28. Elton Brand, Philadelphia: Only one playoff appearance in nine years. If Philly doesn't make the postseason this year, then the "Brand Curse" is official.

29. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland: Even without Oden by his side, Aldridge has been effective for the Blazers. If you match up against Aldridge with a center, he'll face you up on the perimeter. If you match up against Aldridge with a smaller player, he'll go down to the block.

30. David West, New Orleans: One of the strongest low-post players in the league, West complements that part of his game with a reliable 16- to 18-foot jumper.

31. Chauncey Billups, Detroit: Billups seems to have lost a step and a bit of his hunger. But would you bet against him making a potential game-winning 3 at the buzzer? Didn't think so.

32. Caron Butler, Washington: This guy is good. His reputation took a hit when he was with the Lakers because he didn't necessarily take to playing alongside Bryant.

33. Rasheed Wallace, Detroit: You might not like the scowl, but Wallace is among the most unselfish players in the league. He's a solid individual defender, above average team defender, and on top of it, his teammates love him.

34. Monta Ellis, Golden State: Fingers crossed, Ellis comes back the same player he was before his ankle injury. If not, take him off the list.

35. Josh Howard, Dallas: It's not the admitted marijuana use, it's not the dissing of the national anthem. It's more that all these "distractions" are probably going to chip away at his effectiveness as a player.

36. Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers: Odom's as skilled as they come, big-man wise, and he helps the Lakers in different ways. If you're calling him a natural small forward, then he's one of the best rebounders in the league at his position.

37. Richard Hamilton, Detroit: Hamilton is in the upper half of shooting guards when it comes to offense, and he's in the upper half of shooting guards when it comes to defense. That puts him here.

38. Josh Smith, Atlanta: There are few players in the NBA with his athletic ability. Now that he has his contract, it's time for him to get to work and take more responsibility for the Hawks' fortunes.

39. Al Jefferson, Minnesota: Yes, he should be higher on this list, but he was held back because his team was so lousy. Jefferson scores and rebounds, but he also isn't much of a passer and turns the ball over too much.

40. Michael Redd, Milwaukee: Redd is one of the best shooters in the league, with one of the quickest releases. Let's face it, he's a scorer. Until he's in on some Bucks' success, though, he'll never put himself in the class of two guards above him.

41. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia: He earns this ranking only if he begins to solidify himself as one of the league's better perimeter defenders.

42. Allen Iverson, Denver: Nobody in the league plays harder on a more consistent basis. But facts are facts, and he's getting up there (33). Not to mention those are hard miles he has put on that body, with the amount of punishment he has taken over the years.

43. Shawn Marion, Miami: Marion was higher on this list when he played alongside Steve Nash. Marion is a nice player but not nearly as good when he isn't getting spoon-fed easy stuff.

44. Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando: Turkoglu finally had that breakthrough year in 2007-08, winning the NBA's Most Improved Player award. If he has another good season, with more defensive focus upon him, then he will have arrived.

45. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City: He has the potential to make significant strides up this list. But Durant got a little loose with his game during his rookie season, and it remains to be seen whether he can become more efficient.

46. Antawn Jamison, Washington: If you want Jamison to be your second- or third-best player, he won't disappoint. Jamison will score and rebound for you on a consistent basis, and he'll never -- ever -- be a problem in the locker room.

47. Stephen Jackson, Golden State: Jackson isn't the prettiest player in the game, but he helps you win. When he's on his game, Jackson can be a factor at both ends of the floor. Hard as it is to believe, he will have even more offensive freedom with Davis gone and Ellis out.

48. Mike Miller, Minnesota: Need one guy to knock down a deep 3-pointer? Miller has to be in the discussion. You just don't know he's good because he has been in Memphis.

49. Kevin Martin, Sacramento: Martin has an uncanny ability to score and get to the line. But he hasn't shown enough of a willingness to pass and do some of the other things.

50. Ron Artest, Houston: He's a top 15 talent, with little history of success. Interestingly, his on-court issue -- dominating the ball -- will likely be more of a problem than anything that happens off the court.