NFL scout makes prediction for Ohio State vs. Michigan after analyzing pro talent
A pro-centric look at 'The Game' provides a lot of insight entering Saturday
by Jon Solomon
In the eyes of one veteran NFL scout, Ohio State vs. Michigan boils down to two fundamental questions.
- Are the Buckeyes better since they have a more talented but inexperienced team, or does the edge go to the Wolverines' more experienced group that's not considered as fast and athletic?
- Which offensive line has the most success against two talented defenses?
CBS Sports granted anonymity to a longtime NFL scout -- who has seen Ohio State and Michigan play this season -- to candidly assess both teams' talent. The scout's conclusion: Ohio State has more overall team speed, but Michigan can win if it finds a way to run the ball to play keep away like Michigan State did while losing 17-16 to the Buckeyes last week.
The quarterbacks
Though there are questions about J.T. Barrett being a viable NFL starter, the scout believes he's an ideal fit for Urban Meyer's spread option offense. Barrett ranks 25th nationally in quarterback rating and 26th in completion percentage to go with 2,304 passing yards and 722 rushing yards.
"His legs can bail them out with some of his quarterback runs, and that's what you may need in a game like this," the scout said. "I think in some ways he's almost underappreciated because he's not a flashy player, but he can have some 'wow' plays. He's a little streaky. The other day (10 of 22 for 86 yards vs. Michigan State) I thought was weather-related. If I were ranking the quarterbacks who have a chance to beat Alabama, I would say [Clemson's Deshaun] Watson and then Barrett."
For Michigan, John O'Korn went 7 of 16 for 59 yards last week in his first start after replacing injured starter Wilton Speight. The scout chalked up O'Korn's poor numbers to his debut at Michigan, difficult weather that lent itself to running the ball, and a not-so talented offensive line. Speight reportedly practiced on Tuesday and it's not clear if he will play.
"I think [O'Korn] can grow from that game," the scout said. "I think he's probably on par with Wilton Speight, but he just doesn't have a season of experience at Michigan under his belt. If Michigan can run the ball, he'll probably have a chance to play well enough to win. If they can't run the ball, that won't bode well."
The offensive lines
Jim Harbaugh teams are built to run the ball. Michigan does that -- at times. The Wolverines rank 25th nationally in yards per carry (5.2), but that number is somewhat inflated from beating up on some weaker defenses.
The two highest-ranked rush defenses Michigan has faced (No. 14 Wisconsin and No. 26 UCF) held the Wolverines to 2.9 yards per carry. Two weeks ago, Iowa's 46th-ranked rush defense held Michigan to 98 yards on 35 attempts. Ohio State allows 3.4 yards per carry (17th in the country) but gave up 236 yards to Wisconsin and 207 to Michigan State.
"Michigan has a veteran offensive line with three seniors, but it's sort of an ordinary bunch," the scout said. "I can't find a scout in the business that has said, 'You need to see this guy.'"
Ohio State averaged 5.7 yards per carry (11th in the country). Michigan is sixth in rush defense at 3.0 yards per carry allowed. The Buckeyes have more different ways to run the ball than Michigan, but their line has questions, too.
"Ohio State got exposed some against Penn State when they fell behind," the scout said. "When they're ahead and have the threat of a run-pass mix, they're better than adequate. But when they fell behind Penn State, they didn't protect Barrett very well at all. Michigan's line, Ohio State's line, Clemson's line, Washington's line -- I can't imagine any of those guys having a chance holding up against Alabama's front."
The defensive talent
Michigan cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Channing Stribling "can hold up against most college receivers," said the scout, who thinks Lewis will play in the NFL and Stribling will be a late-round pick or free agent. The scout said the cornerback play gives Michigan a chance to pressure and crowd the box.
The scout regards defensive ends Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton as two future pros, and defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow could be as well. Michigan has 36 sacks, which is tied for eighth in the country. Six quarterbacks of Michigan opponents haven't finished games this season due to injuries, according to MLive.com.
"We gonna see how [the Buckeyes] respond to physicality," versatile defensive player Jabril Peppers said this week, according to the Detroit Free Press. "Come with bad intentions. It's never our intention to hurt anyone, but when we hit you, we want you to feel it."
Since Ohio State is so young, the NFL scout hasn't evaluated the Buckeyes' defensive talent as closely yet. "They're ball hawks in the back end," the scout said. "Greg Schiano has done a nice job with them."
The versatile X-factors
Ohio State has do-it-all offensive weapon Curtis Samuel, whose versatility gives the Buckeyes' offense much-needed flexibility.
"He's kind of the next iteration of a Percy Harvin type," the scout said. "He can run it and catch it, elusive out in space. They don't have the vertical game as much this year to stretch the field, but he's helped there. All eyes are on him and he's still been very productive."
Michigan counters with Peppers, whose versatility reminds the scout of Arizona Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu. "He can play outside, inside, blitz, pounce on things off him," the scout said. "He can learn a lot of different spots. Man-to-man coverage is probably the weakest part of his game."
Peppers ranks fourth nationally in punt returns and has 23 carries for 163 yards (7.1 per carry). He probably plays more snaps than anybody in the country, though his heaviest workload on offense hasn't come since late October. "I wonder if this is a game we see him with more touches," the scout said.
The prediction
Michigan hasn't won at Ohio State since 2000, which was Harbaugh's final year as an NFL quarterback.
"I think Ohio State will win at home with a low score," the scout said. "I think they can make it pretty miserable for O'Korn. If Michigan can play like Michigan State, that's the blueprint for them to win. They have the experience to do it everywhere except quarterback, but it's not as if O'Korn can't be effective."
NCAA desperate for Ohio State-Michigan game to be a classic
Alabama looks two touchdowns better than everyone else. The playoff may have to invite a two-loss team, that’s how watered down the group of contenders appears to be. The Heisman Trophy race, supposed to be one of the best in years, has been the Lamar Jackson show, containing little intrigue.
Saturday, however, college football may deliver some drama, when Ohio State hosts Michigan in what is basically a playoff elimination game.
If Ohio State, which has won four in a row and 11-of-12 in the rivalry, wins, it likely wouldn’t claim the Big Ten East — Penn State owns the tiebreaker — but would have four wins over top 15 teams, meaning the Buckeyes’ spot should be safe. If Michigan wins, it would claim the Big Ten East crown, and might even reach the playoff if it doesn’t win the Big Ten title game.
The loser is almost certainly done.
The showdown in Columbus, despite both teams struggling on Saturday — Ohio State edged Michigan State, 17-16, and Michigan trailed at halftime against Indiana before pulling out a 20-10 win — has all the makings of a memorable afternoon. The stakes are the highest in “The Game” since 2006, when Ohio State was ranked first in the nation and Michigan second. Two 10-1 teams with championships aspirations, and only one will still have them by 4 p.m. Saturday.
The coaches, Jim Harbaugh of Michigan and Urban Meyer of Ohio State, will be featured prominently. Meyer has led the Buckeyes to five straight double-digit win seasons and a national title in 2015, while Harbaugh has delivered immediate results, somehow surpassing the enormous hype that accompanied his hiring.
On the field, the best matchup could feature two Metro-area standouts. Jabrill Peppers, the Wolverines’ do-it-all Heisman Trophy candidate from Paramus Catholic, should match up with Buckeye wide receiver/running back Curtis Samuel, a Brooklyn native who has emerged as the their top playmaker, producing 14 touchdowns and 1,440 total yards. Both possess NFL skill sets, and are used all over the field.
After all, this outcome will likely come down to which unit — Ohio State’s offense that scores 43.8 points per game or Michigan’s defense that allows only 10.9 points, lowest in the nation — controls the game.
The sport sure could use a classic, because unless the regular season turns out to be deceptive, Alabama will likely cruise to a second straight national title. And college football may get one Saturday at The Horseshoe. The stakes couldn’t be higher.
Scarlet letter
Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany wanted the New York market. Rutgers wanted the Power Five conference’s money. The marriage made sense for both parties. Neither could have imagined the fit would be this terrible.
Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has won four times in 24 league contests. It has been particularly ugly this year.
In four games against the Big Ten East’s four powers — Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State — Rutgers has been out-scored 224-0. It has been out-gained 2,258 to 382. It already has set a Big Ten record this year — for the number of punts (89 by Michael Cintron).
Simply put, the Scarlet Knights don’t belong on the same field as those schools. This isn’t a knock on Chris Ash, a young energetic head coach who has gotten off to a strong start on the recruiting front. He was dealt a difficult hand.
Rutgers belongs in the American Athletic Conference, where it could compete, and possibly in its best years, challenge for the league crown. That’s not going to happen in the Big Ten. Finishing in the middle of the league would be an achievement. Hopefully the New York market — which rarely has shown much interest in Rutgers to begin with — is making these ugly games worth it for Delany.
Houston rocket
Tom Herman can still coach, huh?
There was this silly notion that losses to SMU and Navy had dimmed the Houston coach’s star, that a few defeats had changed the fact he’s won 22 games in two seasons with the Cougars and is on the cusp of producing back-to-back double-digit win years at the AAC school for the first time in school history. Thursday night seemed to change that narrative, when the Cougars dominated Louisville and Heisman Trophy favorite Lamar Jackson, 36-10.
Herman can basically name his number at Texas. After the Longhorns lost to perennial punching bag Kansas on Saturday for the first time since 1938, there were reports coach Charlie Strong was fired, though the school said in a statement he will be evaluated after the season. LSU and Oregon might also have openings, and Herman only enhanced his value by engineering the upset of Louisville.
The Post’s top 10
1. Alabama (11-0) (Last week: 1)
Only Ole Miss has legitimately pushed the Crimson Tide, the lone opponent to lose to Nick Saban’s powerhouse by a single score. Alabama — which has outscored 11 opponents 443-125 — has shown no signs of slowing down.
2. Ohio State (10-1) (2)
Urban Meyer has now produced five double-digit win seasons in five years in Columbus, and has Ohio State on the cusp of reaching the playoff for the second time in three seasons.
3. Michigan (10-1) (3)
The Wolverines have managed just 162 yards through the air the last two weeks. Jim Harbaugh, at the age of 52, could probably do better than the quarterbacks he’s trotted out there lately.
4. Clemson (10-1) (4)
Even in an ACC Atlantic-clinching 35-13 victory over Wake Forest, there were consistency concerns, mistakes that would cost Clemson against a better opponent. The Tigers still haven’t clicked.
5. Wisconsin (9-2) (6)
The Badgers are a lesson in the importance of preseason polls. They weren’t ranked, and now are within two wins of a possible berth in the playoff.
6. Washington (10-1) (7)
The Huskies rebounded nicely from the USC loss by crushing Arizona State. Now they have to beat Washington State, win the Pac-12 championship game, and cross their fingers.
7. Oklahoma (9-2) (8)
The Sooners are undefeated in eight Big 12 contests despite allowing 30.1 points per game, which illustrates the weak state of the conference.
8. Penn State (9-2) (9)
One more win, and the Nittany Lions will reach 10 victories for the first time since 2009. James Franklin deserves National Coach of the Year consideration.
9. USC (8-3) (10)
A Colorado loss against Utah and the Trojans would remarkably be Pac-12 South champions after a 1-3 start. Clay Helton knew what he was doing after all.
10. Colorado (9-2) (NR)
Colorado is one win away from going from worst to first in the Pac-12 South, already with five more wins than it managed a year ago.
Dropped out: Louisville (9-2)
Heisman Watch (in predicted order)
QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
The Heisman remains his to lose, though Jackson cost himself votes Thursday night, when he produced a season-low 244 all-purpose yards in an ugly 36-10 loss to Houston.
CB/S/LB Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
This is his chance, Saturday against Ohio State, for his Heisman statement, the time for the dynamic New Jersey native to make a lasting impression on the voters.
QB J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
Barrett made up for his worst passing performance of the season with one of his best rushing efforts, running for 105 yards in Ohio State’s 17-16 win over Michigan State.
QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson
The problem with Watson’s season is simple. He set such a high standard last year, anything less would be deemed a step back. After all, he’s produced 32 touchdowns and led Clemson to a second straight ACC Atlantic crown.
QB Jalen Hurts, Alabama
The true freshman has already set an Alabama record for most rushing yards by a quarterback with 803, and has also thrown for 19 touchdowns.
The power of J.T Barrett's voice
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- There is no script.
In fact, the first time J.T. Barrett stood up in front of his teammates, fists punching the air and voice rising, there wasn't even a plan for him to speak at all.
He was just a redshirt freshman preparing to make his first start for Ohio State in a neutral-site game against Navy. Barrett had the starting job for less than two weeks, and there was no reason for the Buckeyes to change their pregame plans from the previous seasons or carve out any time for an untested quarterback.
"I don't remember what I said, but I remember standing up on a chair," said Barrett, now a redshirt junior. "Before that, it was always [then-Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom] Herman -- he would say something and then we left. I don't know what happened, I just felt like I had something to say.
"Come to find out, I've always got something to say."
Every game since then, whether he's injured or healthy, struggling or setting records, starting or coming off the bench, the Buckeyes have come to expect their final dose of motivation from Barrett's mouth.
And he's more than happy to oblige, as loud as he possibly can.
"We don't have enough juice, and what I don't understand is, we don't have another day. We don't have another second, we don't have another minute to waste. There's not going to be another 2016 team. There's not going to be another game against Rutgers. We don't get a do-over. We've got to find some juice, we've got to find something, because we're not going to do that to them. I'll be damned if we do that to our seniors. Not today. We're going to play like it's the last time -- every time." -- Oct. 1 speech vs. Rutgers
The word was spreading throughout the Woody Hayes Athletic Center, but Ohio State coach Urban Meyer was having a hard time buying it.
Barrett is one of the most soft-spoken players on his roster during the week, an introspective kid with a low voice that even to this day can be difficult to pick up on a microphone during his frequent media appearances.
But over and over, Meyer was hearing about the oratory skills of the first quarterback he recruited and signed after arriving at Ohio State and the leadership he was already providing even from his low perch on a crowded depth chart.
"That's what I heard, but I didn't see that much," Meyer said. "Coach Herman would tell me about it, his high school coach [Jim Garfield] would tell me about it, [strength coach] Mickey Marotti would tell me about it. And I said, 'Really?' He had the ACL injury when he got here, he was a nonfactor in 2013 and I really didn't know him very well. But I kept hearing about him, though.
"I would see this very introverted, quiet guy and just go, 'Really?' But I trust the people telling me, and I certainly see it now."
There's no way to avoid it at this point, and Meyer has seen it countless times since. But the legend was growing way back then as his staff whispered about a speech to fellow recruits during a campus visit. Marotti raved about the way Barrett attacked workouts and tried to motivate those around him, even at such an early point in his college career. And Garfield had numerous examples he could point to from his own experiences with Barrett at Rider High School in Wichita Falls, Texas.
"It was always the pregame speech," Garfield said. "We would always come in before warm-ups and J.T. would have free rein. Really, I can't focus on just one that stands out, because it was throughout his career, and he was doing that for us since his sophomore year.
"Everything he says was like gold."
"Listen up, listen up -- 2014 was not a mistake. It wasn't a mistake. That happened because we were real. We are Ohio State, that's what we do. We go to people's places, we lock that s--- up and then we leave. We lock it up and then we leave, every single time. That's what we do. We're going to hit them in the mouth, every single time." -- Oct. 15 speech at Wisconsin
There is no rehearsal during the week, no notecard to read off, and even in the final moments before Barrett takes his stage in front of the offense, no firm idea exactly what message he needs to deliver.
But he reads the room, trying to figure out exactly what the Buckeyes need to hear while also opening up about his own feelings. So when the time comes, the words spill out in a rapid-fire delivery as soon as offensive coordinator Ed Warinner barks, "What you got for us, J.T.?"
"The first time I did it, yeah, I was nervous," Barrett said. "You're sitting there -- especially when I was in high school -- sitting there like, 'J.T., what do you say?' You say you're going to speak up, but what exactly do you need to say? What are you going to say that is going to get the guys going or is really going to resonate with them?
"Honestly, I'm like, don't worry about what you're going to say. It's important just that you know there is something that needs to be said. That's what I think about. Something needs to be said right now, and I don't want to let the moment go by because the message is never going to be the same. I may have time to think about what I'm going to say, and maybe what I could say would be really good, but it's not the same if the moment passed when you needed to say it." ?
That leaves the emphasis on timing, emotion and a little bit of theatrics instead of perhaps prose that could be passed down through time for its sheer beauty.
The messages aren't complicated, and based on ESPN.com's film study, they often include straightforward references to running the ball offensively, stopping the rush on defense, and scoring a lot of touchdowns at some point. Barrett is also a ball of motion, stalking through the rows of teammates in front of him, punching his fist or swinging the towel he usually has in his right hand. And by the end, his screams can be hard to decipher as the intensity soars and the Buckeyes break a huddle to head to the field.
"I mean, the football side of him, he's intense," right guard Billy Price said. "When the moment is on and he's ready to go, it's go time. The best thing about him, though, is he hits home. He brings the juice. What matters in our program, our culture, that's what he brings and what he emphasizes.
"He's a person that when he talks, you have to stop and listen, no matter who you are. If you're just walking down High Street, you're going to want to listen. 'OK, I can dig what you're saying, let's go do it.' He's just dynamic."
"They want to talk. We 'bout that action. This is not what they want. I don't want you to talk to nobody in the stands. On the sideline. On the other team. Nothing. This is on us. This is us against everybody else." -- Sept. 17 speech at Oklahoma
The comparisons are inevitable for any leader in a Meyer program, let alone a record-setting quarterback in the power spread offense.
By this stage in his career, Barrett has officially earned the right to get the "Tebow-ish" tag from his coach, effectively the highest praise Meyer can bestow on somebody given Tim Tebow's track record at Florida both on and off the field.
Ryan Stamper has been in the locker-room audience for both QBs, first as a fellow captain with Tebow at Florida and now as a director of player development with Ohio State. And for all the similarities between the two, there are also some notable differences.
"Tebow, he was just a different animal," Stamper said. "There were a lot of things that he led by example on the field, but there were also things he just didn't do because of his beliefs, and there were a lot of things we wouldn't do. J.T. is a leader on the field, off the field, but when you hear him drop an F-bomb or getting crunk to the same music you're getting crunk to, that makes him more a part of the boys. That's why I think guys respect him so much.
"He is who he is, there's nothing fake about this kid ... [and] he's still one of the boys. To me, both messages are equally important and get guys going."
If anything, Barrett might get himself too worked up by the time his speech is over.
The speeches don't usually last long, and he needed only 23 seconds to make his point before leading the Buckeyes out to take on Northwestern last month. But after Barrett reaches the boiling point and his speech is done, he actually throws some headphones on with "low-key R&B music or some chill Drake" from his playlist to take it down a notch.
"I have to calm down, because I can't play like that," Barrett said. "As a quarterback, you can't go out and do your job with that kind emotion.
"But I definitely want to make sure the rest of my guys are jacked up."
Time after time, Barrett's speeches do the trick. And that's one thing Ohio State can officially script in the pregame routine as long as he's around.
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