2010 NBA Play-Offs

EAST PLAY-OFF PICTURE
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1. Cavaliers (61-21) vs. 8. Bulls (41-41)

Regular season: Split, 2-2.

Key stats

Cavaliers: Before LeBron James sat the final four games -- all losses -- the Cavs were 16-3 with LeBron and without Shaquille O'Neal down the stretch.

Bulls: In Chicago's eight April games, Derrick Rose averaged 25.4 points, his highest average in any month this season.

Key players

Cavaliers: Other than the obvious, it's J.J. Hickson, who played great in Shaq's absence and now must settle back into a secondary role.

Bulls: Kirk Hinrich. Rose's dribble-penetration and pick-and-roll mastery will be huge factors, but Hinrich is in the middle of everything on both ends of the floor when the Bulls are playing well. According to stat guru Wayne Winston, Hinrich was part of every one of Chicago's five most effective lineups this season.

Key matchup: Cavs' bench vs. Bulls' bench. As superior as Cleveland will be with LeBron on the floor, the Cavs' second unit (Hickson, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao, Jamario Moon) may have an even bigger advantage over the Bulls' lackluster subs.

Subplots: Plenty. This series will be much more compelling off the court than on. There's the LeBron-Joakim Noah spat, the Vinny Del Negro-John Paxson spat, and any number of other spats that might emerge once the feisty Bulls go down 2-0. Then, there could be creeps from the New York media flying in to ask LeBron if he has made up his mind yet.

Berger's take: After dropping the final four regular-season games while LeBron rested, the Cavs have all the marks of a heavily favored top seed that won't be sharp in the playoffs. I don't buy it, though. LeBron is too young and too good to be rusty, for one. For another, the Shaq who comes back into the lineup will look more like the Shaq of 10 years ago. Rumblings around the Cavs last week were that the Big Aristotle used the time rehabbing his thumb injury well and may have dropped more than 15 pounds. As he promised when the Cavs acquired him, Shaq will be ready for exactly what he was acquired for -- the playoffs. It may take some time for him to get going, but even when O'Neal was healthy, Mike Brown's preference was to play him fewer than 30 minutes. No way Cleveland loses more than a game in this series, if that.

Prediction: Cavs in 4.



2. Magic (59-23) vs. 7. Bobcats (44-38)

Regular season: Magic, 3-1.

Key stats

Magic: Orlando shot a league-high 27.4 attempts from 3-point range this season -- and even more (32) in its four games against Charlotte, which allowed a league-high 20.7 3-point attempts per game. As the Magic blog OrlandoPinstripedPost.com put it, Larry Brown is smart. He has his team forcing the opponent to take shots it defends well. (Charlotte's .338 3-point field-goal percentage against was second in the league.)

Bobcats: Only Carl Landry (100) had more of his shots blocked this season than Gerald Wallace (91), according to HardwoodParoxysm.com. I don't know what that means; I just like writing the word paroxysm.

Key players

Magic: Jameer Nelson. Point-guard issues doomed the Magic in the Finals last year. Nelson finished the regular season on a strong note, but Orlando doesn't need him to be great to win this series. Still, it's worth taking stock of how well Nelson is running the team and how much his teammates trust him heading into the later rounds.

Bobcats: Stephen Jackson. Nobody gave the eighth-seeded Warriors a chance against top-seeded Dallas three years ago, either. Jackson was a big part of that massive upset. He's fearless and loves the playoff stage.

Key matchup: Howard vs. every center Brown has ever coached. Well, it only seems that way with Nazr Mohammed and Theo Ratliff among the big men Brown can send at Howard in waves -- mostly just to foul him. Between putting Howard (a 59 percent free-throw shooter) on the line and forcing the Magic to become too 3-point happy, Brown will have a field day trying to win this series by himself.

Subplots: Does Brown mean it when he says Charlotte will be his last coaching job? Or are the Sixers moving to Charlotte?

Berger's take: As cynical as I am about Brown's wanderlust, I have the utmost respect for him as a coach. It's impossible not to respect the job he has done in Charlotte, with a team that defends, plays unselfishly, and has a little edge to it since the Jackson acquisition. But Michael Jordan's first foray into the postseason as a majority owner will end badly. It has to, because the Magic are playing better than they were a year ago when they went to the Finals -- and they're more confident and dangerous than they were, too. Yes, the JordanCats can throw a lot of bodies at Howard, put him on the line, and watch him miss a lot of free throws. It won't matter. The Magic won't get flustered, they have too many shooters, and remember -- Howard gets to play defense, too.

Prediction: Magic in 5.



3. Hawks (53-29) vs. 6. Bucks (46-36)

Regular season: Hawks, 2-1.

Hawks: Jamal Crawford, the favorite to win Sixth Man of the Year honors, is finally in the postseason after a drought that lasted 676 games and 21,903 minutes.

Bucks: John Salmons played against Atlanta six times this season -- three each with Chicago and Milwaukee. He averaged 21.4 ppg -- 30.7 ppg with the Bucks.

Key players

Hawks: Al Horford. Without Andrew Bogut under the basket, who is going to keep Horford off the glass -- particularly the offensive glass?

Bucks: Ersan Ilyasova. I can't remember who, but someone dubbed him "Turk" Nowitzki. That's a little generous, but Ilyasova has a chance to affect the series in a way that will prove that Atlanta isn't the only team with an elite sixth man.

Key matchup: Brandon Jennings vs. Mike Bibby. The Bucks' rookie point guard proved beyond any doubt that he was ready for the NBA stage. There's no reason to think he'll shrink from the playoff spotlight -- especially if Bibby has to defend him for long stretches.

Subplots: Will the Bucks be galvanized by Bogut's absence? Joe Johnson and coach Mike Woodson are both essentially lame ducks. Woodson almost certainly will get a contract extension after the season; Johnson's future is way more up in the air.

Berger's take: It has been more than a decade since the Hawks went into a playoff series as the prohibitive favorite. This could be a problem -- but it should be the only problem Atlanta faces in this series. Without Bogut, the Bucks are still dangerous, but not nearly the fearsome first-round opponent they would've been with their big man. The Hawks proved their mettle in past playoffs against the Celtics and Heat. Now they have to show the maturity of a team that has a chance to go deep into the postseason by not fooling around with a vulnerable opponent and putting the Bucks away quickly.

Prediction: Hawks in 5.


Celtics (50-32) vs. 5. Heat (47-35)

Regular season: Celtics, 3-0.

Key stats

Celtics: After starting the season 23-5, Boston went 27-27.

Heat: If the Heat win, it won't be from the 3-point arc, where they shot 29 percent in three regular-season meetings against Boston.

Celtics: Kevin Garnett. Does he stop limping and start intimidating again?

Heat: Michael Beasley. If he plays smart and remains engaged, Beasley has the ability to exploit his matchup with Garnett. That rarely happens for long stretches, though.

Key matchup: Dwyane Wade vs. Ray Allen. As is usually the case, the shooting guard matchup is Miami's advantage. But in this case, it works at both ends of the floor. If Allen takes a beating against Wade on the defensive end, how will his legs hold up when sizing up crucial 3-pointers on the other end? For that reason, look for Paul Pierce to get plenty of Wade duty, with Allen switching off to Quentin Richardson, who does all his damage standing beyond the 3-point arc.

Subplots: The Celtics face the end of the Big Three era, with Allen set to be an unrestricted free agent and Pierce holding an opt-out. Another early playoff exit could cause Wade to have second thoughts about staying in South Beach. Then, he'll return to South Beach and say, "Nah."

Berger's take: This is by far the hardest series to predict in either conference because we don't know who the Heat are playing. Are they playing the 2008 NBA champs, the team that started the season looking like a team chasing 70 wins? Or are they playing the lethargic, old, .500 team that has been stumbling around since then? Miami has the momentum, finishing the regular season 15-3, including a nine-game winning streak. The Celtics keep talking about raising their intensity and playing better, but it hasn't happened. Even while they struggled with offensive consistency throughout the regular season, at least they could rely on their defense. But over the final month of the season, that abandoned them, too. Having said all that, this was a team built for the playoffs. And without Garnett, the Celtics beat the Bulls in an epic seven-game series in the first round last year and pushed Orlando to seven games. I see a trend developing. Nothing is ever easy for the Celtics, but they find a way.

Prediction: Celtics in 7.




WEST PLAY-OFF PICTURE


1. Lakers (57-25) vs. 8. Thunder (50-22)

Regular reason: Lakers, 3-1

Key stats

Lakers: In three games against OKC, Andrew Bynum averaged 19.3 points and shot .629 from the field. In four games, Ron Artest shot .462 (6 for 13) from 3-point range. Lakers would choose A over B, if they had to.

Thunder: In final regular-season matchup, defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha held Kobe Bryant to 4-for-11 shooting, 11 points and nine turnovers.

Key players

Lakers: Bynum. Some of L.A.'s late-season slide can be attributed to lack of interest. A lot of it can be attributed to Bynum missing the last 13 games. If he's healthy and engaged, Bynum could be a huge factor in L.A.'s ability to assert its dominance in the paint. If not, the Thunder will have a chance to extend the series.

Thunder: Russell Westbrook. Aging Derek Fisher could be exposed by the Thunder's explosive point guard. If the Lakers defense gets broken down off the dribble, it tends to break down further when everybody isn't tuned in.

Key matchup: Artest vs. Kevin Durant. Losing 14 pounds during the season, Artest is much quicker on his feet than he was early on. He has the strength to frustrate Durant, but still doesn't have the quickness to guard him the entire game; Kobe will have to take him on for stretches.

Subplots: Bryant, with his four rings, doesn't like being compared to Durant, who will be making his playoff debut. Durant doesn't like Phil Jackson's assertion that he gets "superstar calls," calling the Zen Master's jab "disrespectful." The rift goes deeper than that, though. After the Thunder ran the Lakers ragged in the teams' final regular-season meeting in OKC last month, Jackson downplayed Durant's role, saying he was, "OK," and dismissing a Rolling Stone writer who opined that Durant was better than Bryant as "over his head."

Berger's take: The Thunder have the youth, quickness, solid defensive schemes and Durant, who is already good enough to take over a playoff series. The Lakers stumbled into the postseason by losing seven of their last 11 games. It's easy to look only at the final head-to-head meeting, a 91-75 rout by the Thunder, and conclude that L.A. is vulnerable. The Lakers cannot afford to take OKC lightly, or they'll be extended far too long in this series. But the Lakers' playoff experience, Kobe's guile and killer instincts, and L.A.'s size -- if exerted fully with at least a serviceable contribution from Bynum -- should be the difference.

Prediction: Lakers in 5.


2. Mavericks (55-27) vs. 7. Spurs (50-32)

Regular season: Mavericks, 3-1.

Key stats

Mavericks: Dallas shot 78 percent from the foul line in the head-to-head meetings this season, the only discernable statistical edge; the Spurs shot 69 percent from the line.

Spurs: Tony Parker only played twice against the Mavs this season, which explains why Tim Duncan led San Antonio with 5.5 assists per game in the four meetings.

Key players

Mavericks: Brendan Haywood. You need all the size you can get against the Spurs, and Haywood's presence around the basket will continue to make up for Dallas' vulnerable perimeter defense.

Spurs: Manu Ginobili. With Parker shelved for a month down the stretch, Ginobili carried the Spurs offensively and is having his biggest all-around impact in years.

Key matchup: Shawn Marion vs. Spurs wings. Marion's versatility on the defensive end will give Rick Carlisle the option of putting him on whoever is hurting the Mavs with dribble-penetration -- whether it's Parker, Ginobili or Richard Jefferson.

Subplots: There are always plenty when these two teams tangle. It's the second consecutive year they've met in the postseason and the fifth in the Duncan-Nowitzki era. It's always physical and sometimes ugly.

Berger's take: If the Mavs hadn't finished strong with five consecutive wins after stumbling through the month of March, I'd be picking an upset with no hesitation. As it is, Dallas will have its hands full with a team that's been playing as well as any since the All-Star break. A lot of it depends on Parker's health and how well Duncan makes it through what I expect to be a seven-game series. But with no back-to-backs in the postseason, an extra edge goes to older teams that need rest to be effective. According to Wayne Winston, the Mavs' former stats guru, only the Magic and Suns have played better than the Spurs since the All-Star break. Dallas has been 1.7 points better than average offensively since the break, while the Spurs have been 6.3 points better than average on defense. The series will be determined by matchups and substitution patterns, and the coaches are so close that I can't see it going shorter than seven games. So with a healthy dose of trepidation given Dallas' improved versatility since the trade-deadline acquisition of Haywood and Caron Butler, I'm picking an upset in this one.

Prediction: Spurs in 7.



3. Suns (54-28) vs. 6. Trail Blazers (50-32)

Regular season: Trail Blazers won, 2-1.

Key stats

Suns: Though Phoenix was 26th in the league with 105.3 points allowed per game, its opponent field-goal percentage of .452 was 11th. The Suns are not as bad defensively as you think.

Trail Blazers: Portland is 19-8 since acquiring Marcus Camby.

Key players

Suns: Grant Hill. The Suns' 37-year-old veteran isn't as vulnerable defensively as his birth certificate would indicate. But he'll have his hands full trying to contain Portland's waves of versatile wings -- from Nicolas Batum to Rudy Fernandez to Martell Webster.

Trail Blazers: LaMarcus Aldridge. With Brandon Roy out due to surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee, the Blazers will need their other star to play like one.

Key matchup: Steve Nash vs. Andre Miller. The Suns go as Nash goes, and Miller doesn't have the quickness to guard him alone. How much space Nash can find for himself will dictate the tempo of the series.

Subplots: Amar'e Stoudemire's impending free agency is a constant topic around the Suns. The Portland front office has been a soap opera since assistant GM Tom Penn was unceremoniously fired, and GM Kevin Pritchard is on shaky ground.

Berger's take: The Suns have lost only four times since March 1 and six times since the All-Star break. Despite the fact that the Blazers played at the slowest pace in the league (based on number of possessions), Phoenix's fast-paced style won't be as frustrating for the Blazers as it would be for other teams that are less athletic and versatile. I believe the Blazers have enough athletes to get out and run with the Suns -- not all series, but enough to make it interesting. If Roy were playing, this would shape up as maybe the most enjoyable and hotly contested first-round series. But with so much uncertainly about who the Blazers' go-to guy will be in his absence, Phoenix will be too much even with Camby bolstering the middle against Stoudemire. Given all that the Blazers have overcome this season, they can't be counted out and will push the Suns to six games.

Prediction: Suns in 6.



4. Nuggets (53-29) vs. 5. Jazz (53-29)

Regular season: Nuggets, 3-1.

Key stats

Nuggets: In the 48 victories he participated in, J.R. Smith shot .374 from 3-point range. In 27 losses, he shot .266.

Jazz: In past years, the Jazz couldn't stop Kobe Bryant in the playoffs. This season, Carmelo Anthony lit them up for 33.5 points per game. Hmm ...

Key players

Nuggets: Kenyon Martin. K-Mart's contract may be an albatross, but the Nuggets need his toughness and interior presence against the Jazz. Denver was a respectable 12-6 with Martin out down the stretch, then lost two of three when he returned.

Jazz: Andrei Kirilenko. Slowing down Anthony will be critical to Utah's chances, and Kirilenko is the only guy who can do it consistently -- if he's healthy and conditioned after missing the final nine regular-season games with a calf injury.

Key matchup: Nuggets bench vs. Jazz bench. This could be the deciding factor in the series. If Smith shoots it well and plays smart (for him), the Nuggets could have a big edge along with Chris "Birdman" Andersen and speedy point guard Ty Lawson.

Subplots: The Nuggets have been dealing as best they can with George Karl's absence due to cancer treatments. They'll have to get through an entire playoff series without him, as assistant Adrian Dantley will be guiding them through the first round. It can be argued that the Nuggets miss Karl more than any other playoff team would miss its coach. Nothing would please Karl more than seeing Anthony's ever-expanding leadership skills punch his ticket to an emotional return in the second round.

Berger's take: This could be a matchup of the most emotionally steady team in the playoffs vs. the most emotionally frail. As mentioned, the Nuggets are high-maintenance and miss Karl's unique ability to push their buttons -- especially in the crucible of a playoff series. The Jazz have a lot of advantages -- at point guard, where Chauncey Billups will have trouble containing Deron Williams, and in the paint if Carlos Boozer (ribs) is healthy and effective. I suppose I've already outed myself as a huge proponent of Anthony by naming him first-team All-NBA, and I expect him to reward my confidence by carrying the Nuggets into the second round in a long, physical, emotionally draining series.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7.