1. Alabama: Only two starters return on defense. That qualifies as Nick Saban's worst nightmare. What the rest of the country doesn't know is that there are new Rolando McClains and Terrence Codys waiting to get their chance. Alabama is so loaded that sophomore Trent Richardson may replace Mark Ingram on the Heisman hot list. Quarterback Greg McElroy should improve from an inconsistent first year as starter.
Why they're here: Get ready, 'Bama is about to go off. Right this second, Saban is the best coach in the game. If everything goes wrong the Tide could lose once and still play for it all.
2. Boise State: Can we all agree that Boise is able to play with, and beat, anyone in a one-game bowl situation? No more of this, "If they played in the SEC ..." They don't, so it's a moot argument. Chris Petersen loses only one starter. One! If the Broncos can get past Virginia Tech (scheduled for Oct. 2, but expected to be moved up to opening weekend) they should go undefeated and play for the national championship.
Why they're here: The critics are running out of excuses. Boise had the best winning percentage of the 2000s. It isn't slowing down soon. The next step is to play for a title.
3. Ohio State: The question is whether the Rose Bowl was a one-game spike for Terrelle Pryor or the corner turner. For now we're going to assume that Pryor has had his Vince Young epiphany and will be among the best quarterbacks in the country next season. It's easy to make fun of The Senator (Jim Tressel) but all he does is pump out 10-win teams.
Why they're here: Count Chip Kelly among those impressed by Ohio State's defense in the Rose Bowl. Seven defensive starters return from the team that allowed only 19 touchdowns. Only four teams allowed fewer.
4. TCU: Nine starters are back from the No. 5 scoring offense. All-American Jerry Hughes is the most notable to leave the nation's best defense. National Coach of the Year Gary Patterson (AFCA, FWAA) is at the top of his game. Quarterback Andy Dalton should start near the top of Heisman lists.
Why they're here: Defense still wins championships. At first glance the Fiesta Bowl stunk until midway through the fourth quarter. Upon further review, this was an Ohio State-Michigan replay in more garish colors. A rematch of TCU-Boise in the championship game would not be a surprise.
5. Florida: Quarterback John Brantley gets his long-awaited chance to start. After hanging around for three years, Brantley attempts to change the dynamic. He certainly doesn't run like Tim Tebow, but he has a better arm. Look for the Gators to move it more conventionally, then, on offense. The nation's best secondary has been ripped apart by early defections (Joe Haden, Major Wright). The guys left over aren't too bad (Will Hill, Ahmad Black, Janoris Jenkins). The biggest question is who will be the coach?
Why they're here: It looks like Urban Meyer is hanging on through signing day before fading into the background. At the moment, no program recruits better. Meyer could return in 2010, 2011 or never, but he wants to make sure recruiting keeps perking along.
6. Iowa: OK, we believe, we believe. Even with all the injuries, Kirk Ferentz was able to keep the Hawkeyes competitive. Not many teams anywhere shut down Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech offense. The Hawks did. Nine of the starters on that defense return for what could be a Rose Bowl season. The early NFL departures by offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, corner Amari Spievey hurt, but quarterback Ricky Stanzi will be more mature and defensive end Adrian Clayborn will be a terror.
Why they're here: The Hawks get Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin at home. There are no excuses if Iowa finishes second in the Big Ten. The league has to come through Iowa City.
7. Oregon: Chip Kelly is sitting on the best offense in the country. The Ducks averaged 36 per game, leading the Pac-10 in scoring in 2009. The only significant losses on that side of the ball are LeGarrette Blount and tight end Ed Dickson. The Rose Bowl taught us that the Ducks are going to have to get tougher on defense to challenge for it all. Still, these guys are clearly the class of the Pac-10.
Why they're here: Sophomore tailback LaMichael James should start the season on most Heisman lists. Jeremiah Masoli is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Kelly is a master play caller.
8. Nebraska: The Black Shirts are back. The 33-0 drubbing of Arizona in the Holiday Bowl left the biggest impression, perhaps, of any team in the postseason. Even without Ndamukong Suh, Bo Pelini is going to have the best defense in the Big 12. If he can develop just a couple of playmakers, the Huskers should be the best team in the Big 12.
Why they're here: Nebraska finally has an identity after wandering in the wilderness for most of the last decade. Pelini's defense ravaged Colt McCoy and Arizona at the end. It goes into 2010 on the same defensive level as Ohio State.
9. Wisconsin: Only one offensive starter leaves (tight end Garrett Graham). John Clay (1,517 yards) will continue to hammer defenses. The difference for Bret Bielema is that he has a quarterback. Scott Tolzien is a difference maker, not just a game manager. The position isn't something the coach has to game plan around. Ask Miami. Its speed was negated in the Champs Sports Bowl as Wisconsin won 10 games for the third time in five years. This is Bielema's best team.
Why they're here: Going into his fifth season, Bielema has established a Big Ten and Rose Bowl challenger because he has followed Barry Alvarez' game plan. Pound the rock and play defense.
10. Georgia Tech: Forget the Orange Bowl. It was an anomaly. It's the system that works. The bowl performance overshadowed the fact that Paul Johnson won the ACC with his signature offense in his second season. This year Johnson loses his best receiver (Demaryius Thomas), defensive end (Derrick Morgan), tailback (Jonathan Dwyer) and safety (Morgan Burnett). The ACC still will have to catch up to the Jackets. Thousand-yard rushing quarterback Josh Nesbitt is elusive. Anthony Allen and/or Roddy Jones should get a chance to make up for Dwyer's absence.
Why they're here: The early NFL defections hurt but it's an even trade for new defensive coordinator Al Groh.
11. Texas: The Longhorns and the Big 12 drop down a notch. Garrett Gilbert takes over for McCoy as starter. He's a lot better than what he showed in the BCS title game.
Why they're here: Texas still can't run and Nebraska is on the rise. The loss of McCoy, Jordan Shipley and Sergio Kindle will make a Big 12 repeat a struggle.
12. Miami: The name of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple surfaced briefly in the South Florida search. Luckily for Jacory Harris, his Yoda returned.
Why they're here: The 'Canes will take another step into growing into a national championship challenger. The difference in the ACC race is that they have to travel to Georgia Tech.
13. LSU: Big losses on both sides of the ball. The biggest loss, though, might be Les Miles' job if the Tigers don't get back to challenging in the SEC West. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson will have to get better or Miles is definitely on the hot seat.
Why they're here: Alabama rules and Russell Shepard has to get more involved in the offense.
Ten to watch
Auburn
Boston College
BYU
Clemson
Florida State
Missouri
North Carolina
SMU
Stanford
Utah
14. Virginia Tech: Few teams are more loaded at tailback than Tech, where Darren Evans returns from an injury and Ryan Williams is coming off a freshman All-American season.
Why they're here: An ACC title is going to be tough. Seven starters depart on defense. Plus, the non-conference schedule includes Boise State, East Carolina and Central Michigan.
15. Cincinnati: You don't just go from 12 wins to mediocrity. New coach Butch Jones has enough left in the tank to win the Big East, starting with quarterback Zach Collaros.
Why they're here: It's the same Cincinnati as 2009. Plenty of offense, questionable on defense.
16. Penn State: JoePa needs six wins to get to 400. He'll get them but not too many more. Paterno has to break in a new quarterback and loses playmakers Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee and Jared Odrick.
Why they're here: Call it 8-4 with the return of tailback Evan Royster, but there are tough games at Iowa, Alabama and Ohio State.
17. USC: Lane Kiffin, it's all on you. This is a program used to going to BCS bowls and contending for national championships. Thousand-yard rusher Joe McKnight and No. 1 receiver Damian Williams are gone from the offense. Hopefully, Matt Barkley will improve at quarterback after an uneven freshman season.
Why they're here: The toughest non-conference foe in the country -- the NCAA. The Trojans' short- and long-term future depends on the severity of penalties sure to come from the NCAA in a couple of months.
18. West Virginia: The return of tailback Noel Devine was huge. Sophomore Geno Smith takes over for Jarrett Brown at quarterback. The Mountaineers have won nine games in each of Bill Stewart's first two seasons. The feeling is they could have done better.
Why they're here: The 'Neers could win the Big East or they could fade down the stretch with road games against Connecticut, Louisville and Pittsburgh to finish the season.
19. Oklahoma: The injuries became so crippling that all Bob Stoops could do was throw up his hands. In the end, eight wins was impressive after the loss of defending Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and several others. Stoops benefitted because a lot of young players got playing time.
Why they're here: It's not a one-game season anymore. The Sooners are still rebuilding while playing Florida State, Cincinnati and, yes, Texas.
20. Oregon State: Mike Riley turned down USC (again) and seems like a lifer now in Corvallis. Riles will continue to lure little-known talent and tweak bigger, more prominent programs. The Rodgers brothers are back (Jacquizz and James), which means the Beavers will win eight or nine again.
Why they're here: Even while breaking in a new quarterback (looks like freshman Ryan Katz), Riley remains one of the best in the business.
Case Keenum's decision to return is huge for Houston. (US Presswire)
21. Houston: Kevin Sumlin's season was made when quarterback Case Keenum announced he was returning. The performance against Air Force was troubling, but the Cougars should be favored to win Conference USA.
Why they're here: The school has done its best to keep Sumlin, extending him through 2015. For now, Keenum will keep the Cougars in the top 25. Sumlin, though, was mentioned prominently for the USC and Tennessee openings and could be gone soon.
22. Arkansas: Ryan Mallett officially takes over the title as best quarterback in the SEC. He wisely returned for another season after leading the conference in passing yards in his first season under Bobby Petrino.
Why they're here: Few SEC teams are hotter. The Hogs won five of their last six and get Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU at home.
23. Arizona: The Wildcats are still on the rise despite the Holiday Bowl performance against Nebraska. Mike Stoops gets back quarterback Nick Foles and running back Nic Grigsby.
Why they're here: Arizona controlled its Pac-10 destiny as late as November.
24. Pittsburgh: There is plenty of incentive. Two late devastating losses to West Virginia and Cincinnati ruined the Panthers' Big East chances. Sophomore tailback Dion Lewis and junior receiver Jonathan Baldwin should ease the transition to a new quarterback.
Why they're here: Pittsburgh has turned the corner to become a consistent top 25 program under Dave Wannstedt.
25. Navy: Here's what playoff proponents don't get: You wouldn't want to see an option team like Navy in the bracket. They'd be a threat to pick off any team in a one-game setting. The Midshipmen blasted Missouri in the Texas Bowl and won 10 games for the second time in six years.
Why they're here: Ken Niumatalolo hasn't missed a beat since taking over for Paul Johnson. The Middies won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy again and also beat Notre Dame. Ricky Dobbs could become one of the best rushing quarterbacks of all time. His 27 rushing touchdowns were an NCAA record for a quarterback.
The Big Ten began the decade near the top of the college football world.
The league boasted the Rose Bowl champion (Wisconsin), the Orange Bowl champion (Michigan) and four teams ranked in the top 15 of the final polls in January 2000.
Sound familiar?
DeVier Posey helped Ohio State beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The win contributed to the Big Ten's 4-3 bowl record in 2009.The Big Ten finds itself in a similar position after a strong showing in this year's postseason. Ohio State won the Rose Bowl, Iowa claimed the Orange and four teams finished in the top 20 of the final polls.
While Big Ten success bookends the last 10 years, the league endured its share of ups and downs in between. After thriving from 1993-99 -- the league won six Rose Bowls, went 26-18 in all bowls and claimed a national title in 1997 -- the Big Ten did a lot more surviving in the aughts.
As college football's power base gradually shifted south and west, the Big Ten often seemed under siege during the decade. There was the speed argument and the claims that the Big Ten had fallen behind in recruiting and schemes. No league benefited more from the BCS system -- the Big Ten placed multiple teams in BCS bowls in seven of the 10 years -- and as a result, no league faced more criticism around the country.
Six consecutive Rose Bowl losses and only one winning bowl record through the first nine years perpetuated the bashing, but the Big Ten always found ways to restore itself as one of the nation's premier conferences.
The league took heat entering the 2002 season, only to emerge with a national champion and three top 10 teams. The national criticism reached a fever pitch before the 2009 season, but the Big Ten responded again with four bowl wins against top 15 teams, including two in BCS games.
If nothing else, the Big Ten was extremely resilient during the aughts.
Take Penn State, for example. The Nittany Lions went 26-33 in the first half of the decade, a stretch that nearly forced legendary coach Joe Paterno to step down. In the last five years, Penn State went 51-13, had three top 10 finishes and won two Big Ten championships and four bowl games. At 83 years young, Paterno has an NCAA-record 394 wins ... and counting.
The ups and downs also applied to Ohio State, the program that defined Big Ten football in the decade. The Buckeyes won or shared six Big Ten titles, including each of the last five. They won a national title in 2002 and produced a Heisman Trophy winner four years later in quarterback Troy Smith. Ohio State also drew criticism for its big-game blues toward the end of the decade, but Jim Tressel's team rebounded with a huge win in the Rose Bowl against Oregon (OK, technically happened in a new decade, but it applied to the aughts).
Michigan ended the decade at its lowest point since the early 1960s, with back-to-back bowl-less seasons and a six-game slide in The Game. But the Wolverines also won or shared three league championships and produced eight first-round draft picks during the same period.
This was the decade when Kirk Ferentz revived Iowa, when Purdue became a consistent bowl team, when the spread offense spread throughout the league, when Wisconsin started the coach in-waiting trend, when Northwestern elevated its profile, when Indiana ended its bowl drought, when Minnesota ran into the record books and when Michigan State found a bit of stability.
No team in the country had a stranger decade than Illinois, which reached two BCS bowls and had eight losing seasons.
The Big Ten had its share of triumph: Ohio State's national title, Smith's Heisman, three Outland Trophy winners, two Maxwell Award winners, three Doak Walker Award winners and many more honorees. The league also experienced tragedy, namely the losses of two head coaches, Northwestern's Randy Walker and Indiana's Terry Hoeppner.
Off the field, the league made news by forming its own television network and publicly putting expansion on the table.
The aughts might not have represented great times for the Big Ten, but they were important times.
And just like in January 2000, the league is set up for success as a new decade dawns.
2 comments:
I think Brantley has the skills and the talent around him to make another run at the National Championship and perhaps a Heisman trophy.
Boise has always struggled to attract top talent. SO they had to develop it , often from scratch. It continues. They take guys with extreme heart and a proven work ethic and dumbies need not apply. The lazy guys are weeded out early. ( Mostly, they don't show up for player sponsored practices.) For the most part, Boise gets the 3 star players who take a couple of years to the systems and start their education on the right track. Like I said, dumbies need not apply. If they can't do the school work they can't be on the team. It is that simple.) Next they have to demonstrate good citizenship. Break the rules and you can attend someone else's school. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. And then they work the survivors as hard or harder than any school in D1. The system, like many others, is 150 of the most demanding plays in football. The play book is measured in pounds not pages. And the real test of manhood arrives. Can a player remain focused and positive even when a new guy replaces him at his position? Upper class men regularly give way to red shirt freshmen and sophomores and then must bust their humps to get competitive again. That is just what happened when Kellen Moore came to town. Others too. This isn't the Boise State story alone. Like I said, the best programs follow this model. It is just that Boise has put a finer edge on their sword than most of the others.
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