Dennis Dodd's Big 10 Predictions from www.cbssportsline.com
This might be the worst I've seen the Big Ten in 11 years.
That's as long as I've been at CBSSports.com, so 1998 seems like a reasonable benchmark. In '98, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State shared the title. Michigan was coming off a national championship. Wisconsin went to the Rose Bowl that year. Ohio State went to the Sugar Bowl.
For gosh sakes, in '98 John Cooper was about to win at least 10 for the fourth consecutive year.
Now? Illinois can't decide whether it is a contender or in the middle of the pack. Bret Bielema is feeling the pressure at Wisconsin. The only new coach in the league is aptly named Hope (Danny, at Purdue). Eleven years ago the Boilermakers won their last six in row, went to the Alamo Bowl and upset Kansas State with Drew Brees.
The 2009 Boilers are coming off their worst season (4-8) in 12 years.
Iowa wants to be good again but it could use less yapping from its fans and more production on the field. And Michigan ... where have you gone Wolverines? A total meltdown in Rich Rodriguez' first season has to be rectified, like, yesterday.
Indiana and Minnesota will be at the bottom of the league, a place with which they are familiar.
The Big Ten remains the leader in BCS bowls (19) but you don't have to be told the league has lost a step in recent years. The 28 NFL draft picks each of the last two seasons ranked fifth (2008) and tied for fourth (2009) among major conferences.
The league is only 9-20 in bowls (1-6 last season) since 2005.
Here's my best example for how average the Big Ten has become: Penn State has to replace 12 starters (the most in the league), including its entire secondary. It is a twisted ankle at quarterback away from finishing fifth. A good, not great, group of receivers have to be replaced by what might be good, not great, group of receivers.
Still, the Nittany Lions are a virtual pick-'em with Ohio State to go to the Rose Bowl.
By the way, the Rose Bowl is going to be it for the conference champ. I don't see a national title contender in the bunch. The letters U, S and C will burn the ears of Big Ten loyalists. USC has beaten Big Ten teams by a combined 60 points the past three Januarys. The Trojans will likely be waiting in Pasadena to lay the smack down once again.
Like the Woody and Bo days, it's still a two-team league. Unlike the Woody and Bo days, there's not much national buzz.
1. Ohio State -- How do you lose Beanie Wells, Malcolm Jenkins and James Laurinaitis and get better? You don't. But there is enough left for the Bucks to win the Big Ten again. They have won at least a share of the four previous titles. Everyone seems to be jumping on the Terrelle Pryor bandwagon this season. Look, I like the kid and the athlete. I'm still not convinced he's going to make that quantum leap this season. There will be more pressure on Pryor to carry the offense with his legs if either Brandon Saine or Dan Herron can't become the big dog at tailback. Much will be learned on Sept. 12 when USC visits. Give Jim Tressel a running game, a punter and 105,000 homers and he will field-position you to death. If Tres can't pull it off in September, there's a rematch waiting in Pasadena.
2. Penn State -- It's a miracle of modern science. No, not JoePa's body, I'm talking about the Penn State staff. It has stayed together (for the most part), remained loyal and helped Joe dig out of that 2000-2004 hole. The Nittany Lions are Rose Bowl contenders for the foreseeable future. The defense keeps its snarl with the return of linebacker Sean Lee. The unit did finish in the top 10 in total defense last season. Will the D miss defensive ends Aaron Maybin and Maurice Evans? As mentioned, Daryll Clark has to stay healthy. He has enough elusiveness along with tailback Evan Royster to win the league. Ohio State comes to Happy Valley on Nov. 7.
3. Iowa -- If only Shonn Greene had returned, we might be talking about the Hawkeyes giving Ohio State and Penn State a run. With quarterback Ricky Stanzi having a year of experience and three offensive line starters returning, the Hawks will be productive but in a different way. Stanzi likely will have to make more plays himself (hint: scramble) unless sophomore Jewel Hampton or freshman Jeff Brinson replace those Greene yards.
4. Michigan State -- The Spartans are the Big Ten's flavor of the month. Coach Mark Dantonio has averaged eight wins in his first two seasons in East Lansing and the program ready to take off. Even with the loss of his two best players -- quarterback Brian Hoyer and tailback Javon Ringer -- there is plenty of talent waiting offstage. Watch true freshman tailbacks Edwin Baker and Larry Caper. Sorry Penn State, Michigan State might have the best linebackers in the league starting with junior Greg Jones, a consensus preseason all-Big Ten pick. Dantonio has the two best leg men in the league in kicker Brett Swenson and punter Aaron Bates. Iowa, Penn State and Michigan come to East Lansing. Ohio State is off the schedule.
5. Illinois -- What's your legacy going to be Juice Williams? Two years ago Illinois' quarterback guided a stunning upset at Columbus. Last season Williams and the Illini slumped. In his senior season, Juice could go out as one of Illinois' quarterback greats. Even though he led the Big Ten in passing yards, Williams threw too many interceptions (16). He will hook up often with the incredible Arrelious Benn. New offensive coordinator Mike Schultz will try to squeeze some of the old Juice out of his new quarterback. Schultz oversaw a similar offense at TCU. We'll know about the Illini before Oct. 1. They play Missouri in St. Louis and Ohio State in Columbus in September.
6. Northwestern -- The Big Ten's annually pesky Wildcats figure to be that way again. After Tressel, Pat Fitzgerald might be the league's best coach. His team started 5-0 and came within an overtime loss to Missouri in the Alamo Bowl of winning 10 last season. There are too many holes this season to expect Northwestern to finish in the top half of the league but somebody's going to get punked by the purple in the parity-filled Big Ten.
7. Wisconsin -- Is it time to panic yet? Bielema started 21-5 in his first two seasons, then slumped to 7-6 last year. But it was the way it happened: Bielema still hasn't been able to find a serviceable quarterback. The Badgers looked lost on defense and the prospects aren't good for this season. The formula to beat Wisconsin hasn't changed: Let the tailbacks get their yards, smack the quarterback in the mouth, wait for the turnovers and control the ball against a poor-tackling defense.
8. Michigan -- I was at a Michigan scrimmage in April during the Final Four. Granted, you don't learn much from watching a scrimmage but it seemed to me the offense still struggled to move the ball. Rich Rod better hope that the early-enrolling Tate Forcier is the answer at quarterback. There isn't much behind him. The defense should toughen up. A bowl is a possibility but will a 5-7 season be considered progress?
9. Minnesota -- Third-year coach Tim Brewster has a new state-of-the art stadium. That won't distract fans from asking if the five-game season-ending losing streak is the beginning of the end or just a nit in Goldy's fur. Watch the combination of quarterback Adam Weber and receiver Eric Decker.
10. Purdue -- There are spider webs in the cupboard left over from Tiller's era. Only two starters return on offense. The most experienced quarterback is fifth-year senior Joey Elliott who has played in 10 games in three seasons. Hope is looking at an 0-5 start if he can't beat Northern Illinois and Toledo early.
11. Indiana -- Kellen Lewis wasn't going to play quarterback anyway. Still, his dismissal from the team in April all but assures another down year in Bloomington. Lewis, the program's career passing touchdown leader, had been moved to receiver to make room for junior Ben Chappell. Lewis was the Hoosiers' best athlete. Without him there aren't many playmakers or much hope. Coach Bill Lynch might be on the hot seat.
www.espn.com Ranks the Buckeyes #6
Well, maybe that didn't go quite according to plan.
For quarterback Terrelle Pryor, a year of marinating as a freshman, with some spot duty here and there, turned into a one-way ticket to the barbecue of college football. Here's the ball, kid, remember to keep an eye out for those USC linebackers.
But was it worth it? Was it better to play Pryor and get him used to a group of skill position talents, all of whom have since left for the NFL?
Yes, says Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel.
"I don't care if you're a young quarterback or an old quarterback, you can talk about the receivers all you want," says Tressel, "if you don't have time to throw, it doesn't matter. But when you do, and you can stay on rhythm and have a chance to make your reads, it's going to mean the world to you."
In 2009, Pryor will get that chance.
And are you really worried about finding skill position talent? Ohio State has produced 243 NFL draft picks since 1967, including 50 since 2002. The Buckeyes' 10 first-round picks in the last four years are the most of any school. So while they have big holes to fill, they have an unmatched track record in finding that talent.
For Pryor, a new cast might even be good for him.
Big 10 Spring Practice Results from www.msnbc.com
We've come to the conclusion of spring practice in the Big Ten, and this signals a time of year when the fine folks in the Midwest begin to think the weather may actually warm up at SOME point. And some interesting events have transpired. Indiana named a starting quarterback before practice, Iowa has only seen single digit run-ins with the law, and Michigan is pinning much of its hope on a talented freshman quarterback.
So now it is time to weed through all of our notes of "rising" and "emerging" players and take a glance at how each Big Ten squad saw its spring develop.
Movers and Shakers
*QB Tate Forcier, Michigan
QB MarQueis Gray, Minnesota
QB Keith Nichol/Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
RB Vincent Smith, Michigan
RB Kevin Whaley, Minnesota
RB Ashton Leggett, Michigan State
RB Caulton Ray, Michigan State
RB Jeravin Matthews, Northwestern
**WR Kellen Lewis, Indiana
*WR DeVier Posey, Ohio State
WR Jarred Fayson, Illinois
WR Troy Stoudermire, Minnesota
* TE Brian Linthicum, Michigan State
* denotes draft worthy player in BCS-only leagues
** denotes draft worthy player in All-120 leagues
Illinois
Former Gator Jarred Fayson can now suit up on Saturdays in Champaign, and he made a good deal of noise this spring, however he's not the only one providing hope for a more explosive Illini offense in 2009. Battering rams Mikel LeShoure and Jason Ford have made an impact while Daniel Dufrene nurses his sore hamstring. We're thinking Dufrene should get well soon.
What does all of this mean? One, that the Juice will have more weapons at his disposal, and that super-freak Arrelious Benn may see some more single coverage. Benn and Juice still remain the only fantasy options for the Illini at this point, but the others could "emerge".
Indiana
Ben Chappell's move to starting quarterback without a real competition screams of a coach who will do everything to avoid a controversy, almost like throwing out all the cookies to avoid a late-night snack. This move makes Indiana much more traditional in offensive scheme, and as a result running backs Bryan Payton and/or Demetrius McCray may hold a little more value. Now what does this mean for Kellen Lewis, new full-time wide receiver in Bloomington?
If Kellen Lewis were just going to play wide receiver he'd hold little value. Because he can run like the wind blows and wing the pigskin, Lewis now becomes one of the more intriguing wideouts in the conference, and a sleeper candidate nationally.
Iowa
The bad news? The recent arrest of three players for public intoxication means that the Iowa football program appears hell-bent on keeping the local district court occupied. More bad news? Tight end Tony Moeaki continues to battle injuries.
Ricky Stanzi is the clear-cut number one guy at quarterback, and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos appears fully ready to emerge as a number one target. Both are only options in Big Ten-only leagues.
Jewel Hampton missed most of spring practice and sat out the spring game nursing a hamstring. So, much like last year with Shonn Greene, you'll have to take a leap of faith with Hampton on draft day. No, we still don't believe Paki O'Meara is a legit threat.
Michigan
Tate Forcier took first-team snaps, and Tate Forcier took some second-team snaps as well. Thanks to the transfer of Steven Threet and the injury to Nick Sheridan the Wolverines have all of their Easter eggs in Forcier's basket...at least until speed demon track star Denard Robinson completes that pesky high school. We are concerned over Forcier's size and subsequent ability to take a pounding as well as his lack of experience, but there is no doubt he will see the field this fall. This alone makes him worthy of our top freshman quarterback ranking.
Rich Rodriguez "would be disappointed if Brandon does not have a great senior year" and Brandon Minor is off to a good start by just staying healthy this spring. True freshman running back Vincent Smith is challenging Carlos Brown for carries behind Minor.
Michigan St.
Power backs Ashton Leggett and Caulton Ray moved up the running back depth chart, but no one truly emerged. Glenn Winston was also sentenced to 180 days in the clink for causing a real ruckus during an off-campus sock hop and punch party. This running back job will not be settled until August, when talented backs Edwin Baker and Larry Caper move into Case Hall.
MSU seems to be in good shape at QB with Keith Nichol and Kirk Cousins, both were outstanding in the spring game. But this does fantasy owners little good as there's a good chance we will see split snaps through the month of September. Each can play, and it may only be a hostile trip to South Bend that's capable of determining who should lead the green and white into the Big Ten battle royales. Our money is on the playmaking ability of Nichol. Regardless of the QB look for a different MSU offense this fall.
We are still high on sleeper Keshawn Martin and apparently so are his teammates. Martin was the first receiver taken during a players' draft for the spring game. It could be tight end by committee in East Lansing, but if the spring game is any indication, Charlie Gantt and Brian Linthicum are both draftable commodities.
Minnesota
Spring 2009 is a season of change in Minneapolis. A brand spanking new on-campus stadium is causing headlines as are new coordinators, with another another NFL guy, Jedd Fisch, running the offense. This new pro-style coordinator coupled with Adam Weber's limited spring (shoulder surgery) has us thinking that we may see a return to the Glen Mason run-dominated attack from a couple of years ago.
Duane Bennett returned from his season-ending knee injury, but he was held out of contact drills. He's worth a shot on draft day, but he is not as safe of a pick as we had hoped exiting spring ball. And while we're on the topic of fantasy question marks there are likely many Minnesota football fans who would like stud wide receiver Eric Decker to slow down on the diamond. Who does he think he is...Dave Winfield? A nice signing bonus offer in June and Minnesota may, I repeat may, be looking to replace their star wideout.
We should also see quarterback MarQueis Gray in situational play this fall. Wide receiver Troy Stoudermire racked up 274 all-purpose yards in the spring game. Keep an eye on him as well.
Northwestern
Fresh off the nice showing in San Antonio, Northwestern spent their spring looking to replace C.J. Bacher and Tyrell Sutton, a back who finally exhausted his eligibility. Thankfully for those that tailgate outside of Ryan Field, Mike Kafka and Stephen Simmons appear ready to lead the way. Both would be considered sleepers at this point. Though Simmons will see competition at running back.
Wide receiver-turned-running back Jeravin Matthews turned heads with his performance this spring, and he could be a factor in 2009. And if you can convince your good-for-nothing, lazy commissioner that Matthews is primarily a wide receiver he may be a real late-round steal in Big Ten-only leagues.
Ohio St.
The Buckeyes installed the pistol offense this spring, a formation that sounds much cooler than the spread. Terrelle Pryor will operate between the center and running back (think Colin Kaepernick) and it allows a little more versatility, but more importantly it puts more of the offensive onus on the team's best player.
The running back spot has become a bit more muddled. It won't be as simple as Beanie Wells giving Dan Herron the ball and wishing him godspeed. Brandon Saine will have a say in this running back battle; remember, Saine is a terrific athlete with speed to burn, and Jim Tressel saw fit to offer him a scholarship to Ohio State too.
Are we worried about Ohio State's offensive line losses? Just a little bit. Sure three big uglies, including Alex Boone, have moved on, but this is Ohio State, where they pick offensive lineman like a five-year-old picks his nose...with a purpose. Besides Mr. Pryor can erase a lot of early-season miscommunication on the offensive line with his freakish talent.
DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher exit spring as the starting wide receivers. We still love Posey's ability to stretch the field and based on spring reports, he is ready to break out. However we still worry about how much the Buckeyes will throw the football.
Penn St.
The question mark heading into spring was at wide receiver, and despite the optimism quarterback Daryll Clark has in the young group, it still is an area of uncertainty for fantasy owners. Chaz Powell was limited by a sprained ankle, making it hard to gauge if he will be the "next Derrick Williams". Graham Zug, Derek Moye and Brett Brackett exit spring as the starters. Like last year, spin the roulette wheel and hope for the best if you have your heart set on a Penn State WR.
The good news is linebacker Sean Lee was back, even if he wasn't allowed to hit anybody. The bad news is fellow linebacker Navorro Bowman could face more disciplinary action after admitting to smoking the ganja while on probation. Otherwise, not too much to report, except that incoming recruit Kevin Newsome will be an immediate factor in some fashion. Or at the very least a decent keeper selection.
Purdue
Thanks to an academic indiscretion, Justin Siller has been asked to leave Purdue, leaving Joey Elliott the starter in West Lafayette. Jaycen Taylor is still the favorite to emerge as starting tailback, though he was held out of spring contact drills and it sounds like he still has a ways to go on his rehab. If he is unable to go, Dan Dierking will likely be the guy. But keep an eye on incoming freshman Al-Terek McBurse. TE Kyle Adams returns, and Boiler tight ends have always been a factor. This teams appears to be in transition mode, so tread lightly.
Wisconsin
Charles Clay was limited with an ankle injury, and this plagued him last spring as well. Should owners be worried? Yes, unless you also own fantasy stock in Zach Brown. By all accounts Brown had a good spring and is a legit threat to vulture carries.
Quarterback Curt Phillips is making a push to overtake incumbent Dustin Sherer. The only shock is that he didn't challenge for the job last year. Or at least get a few looks. If you are drafting Wisconsin quarterbacks, take Phillips. Trust us on this one.
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