Monday, April 6, 2009

NCAA Basketball National Championship Preview




Good Articles and Video on the National Championship Game Tonight
from www.cbssports.com



DETROIT -- Michigan State's Tom Izzo was talking about his team being a shining beacon amid the economic depression that has hit this city and your gag reflex actually didn't activate after he said it.
It was sincere, you just knew it, and not the usual manipulative coach-speak we so often hear.
North Carolina's Roy Williams was speaking to reporters and in the span of several minutes managed to mention how he looked at tape for eight hours, referred to himself in the third person and then spoke about how he hasn't looked at the tape from last year's Final Four loss.
"I have not looked at that tape, not one time," Williams said. "Until I die, at the Pearly Gates, if I happen to be lucky enough to go there, I'll ask St. Peter to give me the tape and I'll watch it at that time."
Wait, hold on, I have to run to the bathroom real quick and ...
Baaaarrrrffffff!
And, in a nutshell, those two scenes are typical Izzo and typical Williams.
For those who don't know Izzo, he's arguably the most genuinely decent man in all of sports. That's not hyperbole, that's not overstatement, that's fact. He's liked and respected by almost everyone in the profession and adored by the media. There isn't a phony bone in his body.
For those who don't know Williams he is, well, Eddie Haskell. Williams isn't a bad person by any means, and he's arguably one of the top five coaches in NCAA history but he's also, well, Eddie Haskell.
The championship game itself Monday night isn't only a contrast in styles with the Tar Heels being the up-tempo speed demons and the Spartans' offense resembling a slow-moving cement truck.
There is also a contrast in the styles of the two leaders. One championship game, two outstanding coaches, and two completely different men: one who is sincere (Izzo) and another who tries to be (Williams).
Again, Williams isn't a bad person, he's not Pacman Jones, and Izzo isn't an angel walking among us. There are variances, fluctuations and human frailties within us all.
It's nevertheless an interesting case study, particularly with Roy Haskell.
Williams has been able to pull off one of the neatest tricks in all of sports -- portraying himself as a golly-gee guy while quietly being just as cutthroat and bottom line as almost every other person in his profession. The only difference between Jim Calhoun and Williams is public temperament and spoken accent.
You got a sense of the true Williams with how he handled his departure from Kansas. There was plenty of blame to go around in that situation; neither former athletic director Al Bohl nor Williams handled it well. Bohl and Williams disliked one another, and when it seemed a foregone conclusion Williams was headed to North Carolina, Bohl claims he was fired by the Kansas chancellor as a desperate maneuver to prevent Williams from leaving.
Bohl, speaking of Williams, told one newspaper following his dismissal: "This is a sad day for college athletics when a basketball coach has the power to hire and fire a university's athletic director. ... He had the choice to either crush me with his power of influence or let me fly with my visions for a better total program. He chose to crush me."
When CBS sidelined reporter Bonnie Bernstein asked Williams after his tough loss as Kansas coach to Syracuse about the possibility of going to North Carolina, Williams' gosh shucks demeanor was suddenly gone. He accused Bernstein of being a bad human being for simply asking a needed question and doing her job.
"The guy in your ear that told you that you had to ask that question ... as a journalist, that's fine," Williams said, "... but as a human being, that's not very nice ... and I've got to think that in tough times that people should be more sensitive."
Before abruptly ending the interview, Williams told Bernstein, "I could give a s--- about North Carolina right now."
In February of this year, Williams cursed during a news conference after being asked to elaborate on why the team had problems with its fullcourt press following their victory against N.C. State. Williams said his team stunk and when explaining why added, "If I knew the answer to that, do you think we'd still be f------ stinkin'?"
Coaches curse -- Maryland's Gary Williams is a notorious potty mouth -- but again the Terps' Williams and other four-letter connoisseurs don't portray themselves as patron saints the way Williams does.
Izzo is the kind of person who when he asks how you are, you know he really wants the answer: How are you?
There's a kind of humility rarely seen by a coach of his stature and it's real.
Not Eddie Haskell-ian.

Predictions

North Carolina (33-4)
Coach: Roy Williams, six years at North Carolina, six years in NCAA tournament.
How they got here: At-large bid; South first round: def. No. 16 seed Radford 101-58; South second round: def. No. 8 seed LSU 84-70; South regional semifinals: def. No. 4 seed Gonzaga 98-77; South regional final: def. No. 2 seed Oklahoma 72-60; National semifinal: def. East No. 3 seed Villanova 83-69.

They'll win the title if ...: They don't go cold against Michigan State. The Spartans have won just three games all season in which they allowed more than 70 points. North Carolina has scored less than 70 points just once. Since returning the lineup, Ty Lawson has been even better than he was pre-toe injury. Lawson is averaging 20 ppg and has just six turnovers in four tournament games. Wayne Ellington is playing better than at any other time this season and with no hesitation in his game. Tyler Hansbrough is averaging 21 points and eight rebounds on the season. Danny Green, something of a Swiss Army knife for the Tar Heels, can play at least three positions for extended minutes and has played terrific on-ball defense.

Go-to guys: Lawson beat out teammate Tyler Hansbrough for ACC player of the year honors even though Hansbrough led the Tar Heels in scoring in the regular season and will be the first Tar Heel to lead his team in both scoring and rebounding for four consecutive seasons. Lawson scored in double figures and led the league in assists. Danny Green, who played a marvelous "sixth man" role for the last three years, stepped into the starting lineup and gave the Heels instant firepower from 3-point range. He's another double-figure scorer along with Lawson, Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington.

Strengths: The Tar Heels have quickness, one of the best starting fives in the country, and a killer instinct that can lead to big scoring runs if an opponent stumbles at any point in the game. They can shoot the three as well as the two, are relentless on the boards, and are unselfish, ranking second in the country in assists and sixth in assist-to-turnover ratio. They also get to the free-throw line a lot and convert their chances.

Weaknesses: Without the injured Marcus Ginyard, the Heels lack a real shutdown defender on the perimeter and can be vulnerable against a 3-point bombing team. Duke showed that by leading the Heels at halftime of both meetings. Hansbrough, with all his aggressiveness, is a not a particularly strong defender inside. Ginyard's absence also affects depth, though the unexpected return of freshman Tyler Zeller from a wrist injury has helped depth up front. Turnovers have been a problem at times, but not in the tournament, where Lawson has been almost perfect with the ball.


Michigan State (31-6)
Coach: Tom Izzo, 14 years at Michigan State, 12 years in NCAA tournament.
How they got here: At-large bid; Midwest first round: def. No. 15 seed Robert Morris 77-62; Midwest second round: def. No. 10 seed Southern California 74-69; Midwest regional semifinals: def. No. 3 seed Kansas 67-62; Midwest regional final: def. No. 1 seed Louisville 64-52; National semifinal: def. West No. 1 seed Connecticut 82-73.

They'll win the title if ...: They take advantage of cozy environs in Detroit, just 90 miles from East Lansing. They didn't do so back in December, when the Tar Heels knocked them around 98-63. Goran Suton did not play that day, and his presence this time around is a significant addition. Michigan State is nearly unbeatable when its wins the rebounding battle. The Spartans outrebounded 20 consecutive opponents to end the regular season -- and three of their five tournament opponents -- compiling a 26-4 record when winning the battle of the boards. Led by Big Ten defensive player of the year Travis Walton (6-2, 190), the Spartans have also been playing terrific perimeter defense. Kansas was 3-of-12 from 3-point distance, Louisville was 6-of-18 and UConn 2-of-6. The Spartans are 19-0 (3-0 in tournament) when scoring 70 or more points and 26-0 (4-0 in tournament) when allowing fewer than 70. Michigan State also went 18-1 when committing less than 15 turnovers.

Go-to guys: Sophomore guard Kalin Lucas (6-0, 180) was named Big Ten player of the year after averaging 16.5 points in league play, boosting his production to 18.0 points per game on the road as the Spartans broke a school record with eight conference road wins. Senior center Goran Suton (6-10, 245) was the first Michigan State player since 1997 to win a league rebounding title, averaging 8.4 boards and 10.0 points in the Big Ten. Junior forward Raymar Morgan (6-8, 225) was slowed by illness, but averaged 12.1 points and 7.9 rebounds in the nine conference games in which he played at least 20 minutes.

Strengths: Big Ten coach of the year Tom Izzo has guided the Spartans to 12 consecutive appearances and a 26-10 record in the NCAA tournament, including a national championship in 2000 and Final Fours in 1999, 2001 and 2005. He did a masterful job this year, winning the Big Ten by four games -- the league's biggest margin since 1985 -- despite injuries and illnesses that forced him to use 14 different starting lineups.

Weaknesses: The Spartans were 2-5 in the regular season when allowing 70 or more points, including lopsided losses against ACC members Maryland (80-62) and North Carolina (98-63). They aren't much of a threat from downtown; through games of March 8, they ranked 260th in Division I with 5.2 3-pointers per game.

Roy Williams asked about NC job after Kansas lost in the Title Game!

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