Monday, April 7, 2008

NCAA National Championship Preview: Kansas v's Memphis


from www.cbssportsline.com

Memphis (38-1)
Coach: John Calipari, eight years at school, five years in NCAA Tournament.

How they got here: Automatic bid (C-USA tournament champion); South first round: def. No. 16 seed Texas-Arlington 87-63; South second round: held of No. 8 seed Mississippi State 77-74; South semifinals: pasted No. 5 seed Michigan State 92-74; South final: routed No. 2 seed Texas 85-67; National semifinals: dominated West No. 1 seed UCLA 78-63.

They'll win the title if ...: Winning 38 games by an average margin of 18.6 points -- 80.2 to 61.6 -- the Tigers are earning credibility after feeling disrespected much of the season and through the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Memphis keeps the pedal to the floor with double-digit wins over Michigan State, Texas and UCLA in the last three games. That erased doubts about whether Memphis was among the nation's elite. The Tigers' backcourt tandem has become the team's rudder and, while barely leaving the floor as the stakes were raised building to Monday's grand-prize finale, scoring in bunches without making mistakes. Memphis has 16 turnovers in the last 80 minutes, covering the UCLA and Texas wins. Rose and "CDR" had 53 points against the Bruins, 46 against the Longhorns and 52 against Michigan State. If KU is to grab the Tigers by the tail and take the national title, disrupting the dynamic duo of Rose and Douglas-Roberts is essential. In a loss to Tennessee on Feb. 23, Memphis had 11 turnovers and Rose scored 23 points. But "CDR" was held to 14 points, shot 8 of 17 from the line and shot 39.7 percent from the field.

Memorable moment: The Tigers was ranked No. 1 in both polls and 26-0 when it lost 66-62 at home to then-No. 2 Tennessee on Feb. 23. That loss probably did more for the Tigers than any of their C-USA wins. It forced the Tigers to re-focus before the tournament.

Go-to guys: Memphis has multiple go-to scorers. Sophomore reserve guards Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack can score from the perimeter, junior guard Antonio Anderson can score off the drive and junior forward Robert Dozier can produce inside, but no two players are more valuable to the Tigers than their first-team all-conference selections -- junior guard Chris Douglas-Roberts and freshman point guard Derrick Rose. If the game is close and the Tigers need a basket, the ball will be in their hands.

Strengths: Memphis has the No. 1 RPI and was tested outside the well-cushioned conference schedule. The Tigers are deep and versatile, and their interchangeable parts fit together well. Rose is the closest thing to a complete player on the roster, but the Tigers have many different skills and talents in their playing rotation. They're capable of winning with defense and rebounding, even when they're not shooting well, because they can make the most of a fast, intense tempo and create easy shots.

Weaknesses: This is still a sum-of-all-parts team. Take one or two pieces out of the Memphis puzzle and cracks in the foundation can be exposed, especially if Dorsey disappears or finds foul trouble. Opponents prefer to play zone and take their chances with the Tigers erratic 3-point shooting. The Tigers were one of the nation's worst free-throw shooting teams during the regular season, but is hasn't been an issue during the tournament.


Kansas (36-3)
Coach: Bill Self, five years at school, five years in NCAA Tournament.
How they got here: Automatic bid (Big 12 tournament champions); Midwest first round: def. No. 16 seed Portland State 85-61; Midwest second round: def. No. 8 seed UNLV 75-56; Midwest semifinals: def. No. 12 seed Villanova 72-57; Midwest final: nipped No. 10 seed Davidson 59-57; National semifinals: crushed East No. 1 seed North Carolina 84-66.

They'll win the title if ...: Memphis boasts a bevy of options and lineup choices for John Calipari, but that won't wow the Jayhawks, who are deep and talented. Kansas has seven players averaging more than seven points but none over 13.1 per game. Kansas is capable of disrupting the Tigers with a zone defense. The Jayhawks have enough size and interior depth to cut off penetration from Memphis' Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts and on-ball defenders Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush have the length to make them work to get free. A zone defense also challenges the patience of Calipari's team, which shot 35.1 percent form 3-point range but was prone to extended cold streaks from the outside during the regular season. KU has some familiarity with the strategy of slowing down the 1-2 punch on offense from meetings with rival Texas. But how the Jayhawks respond to the significant pressure they'll face on the perimeter could become KU's key to the game. Memphis won't slow the pace, but it will change defense and make execution in the halfcourt a challenge.

Memorable moment: Darnell Jackson and Rodrick Stewart played against Oklahoma State despite violent deaths of family members in the days leading up to the game. Jackson's cousin died of gunshot wounds, while Stewart's adopted brother and cousin was murdered. Jackson, a starter, responded with a double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds). KU finished the regular season with four straight wins, outscoring opponents by an average of 24.5 points.

Go-to guys: No Kansas player scored more than 25 points in a regular-season game but seven players averaged between 7.3 and 13.4. Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur, Mario Chalmers and Darnell Jackson are all candidates to lead the team in scoring on a given night.

Strengths: Athleticism, depth and balance. Kansas has skilled individual players capable of scoring 25, but the offensive system is more likely to yield three 15-point men. Darrell Arthur and Mario Chalmers are likely to lead the team in scoring. Do-everything wing Brandon Rush stuffs the stat sheet and contributes without taking 15 shots on most nights. KU doesn't start a true center. That doesn't mean the Jayhawks can't deal with size. Sasha Kaun and Cole Aldrich, who has come on strong since January, give Self the option of attacking teams with great size with this twin-towers approach.

Weaknesses: Rush isn't a prolific scorer, even though he's capable of an explosion if his mid-range shot is falling. But KU has a tendency to go stagnant when the pace slows to a half-court tempo. When Rush is cold, there have been times this season when the Jayhawks stand around and wait for him to create offense. The return of Collins has made the Jayhawks more assertive as a whole, but KU should fret if Rush disappears. Of late -- the NCAA Tournament win over Portland State and in the Big 12 tournament -- Rush has been assertive and the Jayhawks benefit from his confidence. KU relies on a potent perimeter attack and without it, the offense can be stalled. Witness the loss at Oklahoma State, when KU missed 11 of 13 3-point tries. Darrell Arthur has to be guard against being too aggressive on defense. He fouled out in 17 minutes in that OSU loss.


Matchup Summary
From frontcourt to backcourt to depth to style, the two championship game foes are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. So why the slight edge for Kansas? Shooting. Though both teams have played magnificently throughout the tournament, the statline for the season shows the Jayhawks shooting 51 percent to 47 percent for Tigers. From 3-point range the gap widens to 40 percent to 35 percent and from the free-throw line it's 70 percent to 61 percent.

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