College Basketball Bubble Watch
Bubble watch: Calculating at-large possibilities
It's Championship Week. There's no reason to dawdle. Let's get straight to the updated look at the at-large picture.
Here are the teams that are "locks" or "should be in"s from the six biggest conferences:
ACC: Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami
Big East: Georgetown, UConn, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Marquette, West Virginia
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State
Big 12: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor
Pac-10: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
SEC: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Assuming there are no surprise automatic-bid winners from these leagues, that means 21 of the 34 at-large bids are accounted for, leaving 13 up for grabs.
Next, three leagues are in very good shape to get two teams in:
WCC: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Missouri Valley: Drake, Illinois State
Mountain West: BYU and (right now) UNLV
That would leave 10 at-large bids. That number could drop, though, if any of the following teams don't win their conference tournaments:
C-USA: Memphis (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Sun Belt: South Alabama (should be in)
MAC: Kent State (should be in)
A-10: Xavier (lock)
CAA: VCU (bubble candidate)
SoCon: Davidson (bubble candidate)
The most likely scenario right now is that seven or eight bids will remain, assuming two or three of those teams won't win their respective conference tourneys.
From the remaining teams, Arizona, Arizona State, UMass, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Kentucky look to be best-positioned right now, but most of those teams face extremely important quarterfinal games in their conference tourneys, so that picture could change in a hurry.
If all those teams do hang on to their current position, that leaves a maximum of four bids -- and more likely just one or two -- for the following group of teams (listed in alphabetical order): Dayton, Florida, Houston, Maryland, Mississippi, New Mexico, Ohio State, Oregon, Saint Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, UAB, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky. Davidson and VCU also are possibilities.
As always, the records listed are Division I only, per NCAA Tournament selection guidelines.
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HERE ARE THE TEAMS THAT ARE AT THE TOP OF THE BUBBLE AS OF NOW!
Leading contenders ...
Arkansas
Record
20-10, 9-7 SEC
Pros
An RPI and SOS hovering around the top 40. 5-4 vs. RPI top 50, 8-6 vs. RPI top 100. Wins of note: Vanderbilt, Baylor, Mississippi, Mississippi State and VCU.
Cons
A 5-9 record on the road -- lost last five road games. Four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
The black eye on the Razorbacks' resumé is their inability to win away from home. But when compared to what else is out there they should garner a bid. At least one win in the SEC tourney should clinch it.
Last game
def. Auburn 77-64
Remaining schedule
March 13-16 -- SEC Tournament
Kentucky
Record
18-12, 12-4 SEC
Pros
An SOS in the top 15. An RPI hovering around the top 50. Winners of 11 of their past 13 to reach 12 wins in SEC play. Wins of note: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi and Florida.
Cons
All their top victories came at home. A dismal out-of-conference mark that included losses to San Diego and Gardner-Webb. A 4-7 record vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-9 against the top 100.
Outlook
Their only losses in the past 13 are at Vandy and at Tennessee. They're in the exact opposite boat as Mississippi, which dominated out of conference and struggled in the SEC. The selection committee may take into consideration they were adjusting to a new coach early in the season and some injury issues.
Last game
def. Florida 75-70
Remaining schedule
March 13-16 -- SEC Tournament
Baylor
Record
21-9, 9-7 Big 12
Pros
Won four of past five games. An RPI and SOS ranked solidly in the top 40. Wins of note: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Kansas State and swept Texas Tech.
Cons
A non-conference SOS in the triple-digits. Stretch in which they lost six of seven Big 12 games. A 3-8 mark vs. the RPI top 50.
Outlook
The Bears seemed to have found their footing again after that little rough patch. Their record against the RPI top 50 isn't pretty, but there aren't many bubble teams who fare much better in that department. If they can get at least one win in the Big 12 tourney, they should feel pretty good about their chances of garnering a bid.
Last game
def. Texas Tech 86-73
Remaining schedule
March 13-16 -- Big 12 Tournament
Kansas State
Record
20-10, 10-6 Big 12
Pros
An SOS that ranks in the top 25. An RPI just outside the top 40. Finished third in Big 12. Wins of note: Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
Cons
A 5-8 mark away from home. A 6-9 mark vs. the RPI top 100. Lost five of last eight games.
Outlook
They've won their last two following a four-game losing streak, but the victories came vs. Big 12 cellar dwellers Colorado and Iowa State. They're in an OK position for a bid, but they'd do themselves well to pick up a couple wins in the Big 12 tourney.
Last game
def. Iowa State 73-69
Remaining schedule
March 13-16 -- Big 12 Tournament
Ohio State
Record
19-12, 10-8 Big Ten
Pros
Strong non-conference and overall schedule. An RPI just inside the top 50. Wins of note: Michigan State, Purdue, Syracuse and Florida.
Cons
A 3-9 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Losses at Iowa and Michigan.
Outlook
The Buckeyes have likely played their way into the Dance with back-to-back victories vs. Top 25 teams following a four-game losing streak. Their schedule is among the toughest in the nation, but it didn't help that up until the last week they had basically lost all of those tough games on top of losses to Iowa and Michigan.
Last game
def. Michigan State 63-54
Remaining schedule
March 13-16 -- Big Ten Tournament
Massachusetts
Record
21-9, 10-6 Atlantic 10
Pros
Hovering around the top 40 in the RPI. Six-game win streak. Wins of note: Dayton, Syracuse, Houston and swept Rhode Island.
Cons
A so-so SOS. They were struggling in conference play for a time -- losing five of seven -- but current win streak has pushed their conference record well above .500. Swept by Saint Joseph's.
Outlook
They're definitely winning at the right time, but not safe just yet. A lot could still depend how the A-10 tourney plays out. For instance, how would a third loss to Saint Joseph's impact them?
Last game
def. G. Washington 67-63
Remaining schedule
March 12-15 -- A-10 Tournament
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