Ohio State was built to win it all. Can Ryan Day & Co. finally reach that potential?
Great Read by:
Adam Rittenberg espn.com
Ohio State is one of the most consistently elite teams in all of American sports.
The Buckeyes haven't had a losing regular season since 1988. They haven't endured a multiyear stretch that would be described as mediocre since 1999 to 2001. In the past 50 seasons, they have 14 more wins than any other college football team.
They also haven't won a national championship since 2014 or beaten archrival Michigan since 2019, Ryan Day's first season as head coach. The average margin of defeat against Michigan in the past three games was 14.3 points.
Ohio State built a superteam for Day to check both of those boxes this season. With a $20 million NIL spree, the Buckeyes retained several key draft-eligible players, especially on defense but also with offensive standouts like running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. They also made their most aggressive transfer portal push ever, adding marquee names such as running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), safety Caleb Downs (Alabama) and quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State). Day also hired his mentor, former NFL and college coach Chip Kelly, as offensive coordinator.
The result: A team that ranks No. 4 nationally, is a one-point road loss to now-No. 1 Oregon from being undefeated but also hasn't shown sustained excellence to meet the highest of expectations this season. After an open week, Ohio State didn't dominate Nebraska last Saturday, as many expected it would. A Huskers team that one week earlier had lost 56-7 at Indiana stifled Ohio State's run game and took a fourth-quarter lead before the Buckeyes rallied to prevail 21-17. The Buckeyes also scored only seven first-half points against Iowa before pulling away.
Ohio State now hits the road to face another top-three opponent in Penn State.
A loss could significantly hurt Ohio State's chances of winning the Big Ten, and even put the Buckeyes' CFP hopes in doubt. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, a loss to Penn State would drop Ohio State's playoff chances to 49%, while a win would place them at 88%.
Ahead of the Penn State showdown, here's a closer look at a Buckeyes team that is exceptionally talented but also seemingly missing something. Opposing coaches and others weigh in on the late-game defense and schematic choices (especially with the line), a banged-up offensive line still finding its way, quarterback Will Howard and more.
Ohio State clung to a four-point lead against Nebraska with 3:14 left when officials upheld a targeting call against Buckeyes linebacker Arvell Reese, who had hit Huskers wideout Jahmal Banks over the middle. Day slammed his headset to the turf and had to be restrained by a staff member. He drew a sideline warning penalty but easily could have been flagged for being out on the field.
Pressure has been mounting for Day in every year that doesn't include wins over Michigan or a national championship. Even good moments, like last year's dramatic road win at Notre Dame, have brought out fire from the Buckeyes' coach.
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After a brief lull in recruiting in 2023, Ohio State signed ESPN's No. 3 class in 2024 and has the No. 2 class for 2025. The school's NIL forces are fully engaged, as the past offseason showed. The stakes couldn't be higher for Day and the 2024 Buckeyes. Urban Meyer, Day's predecessor as Ohio State's coach, said in August that Ohio State might have the "best roster in college football in the last decade."
Yet halfway through the season, Ohio State is still searching for its best product, starting on defense.
The defense's improvement under coordinator Jim Knowles is undeniable. Since his hiring in 2022, the Buckeyes rank No. 3 nationally in average points allowed (15.2) and average yards allowed (285.2). Last season, only national champion Michigan surrendered fewer points per game than the Buckeyes (11.2). This fall, only Texas is allowing fewer yards per game than Ohio State (254.4). In 2021, the year before Knowles arrived, Ohio State had slipped to 38th in points allowed, 97th against the pass and 96th in third-down conversion rate (41.8%)
The Buckeyes have been very good under Knowles, but they also could be better. One troubling trend in Ohio State's losses since Knowles' arrival is the inability to generate late stops.
Michigan's final four full possessions in a 2022 win against Ohio State led to three touchdowns and a missed field goal attempt. Georgia's final four possessions in its 2022 CFP semifinal win over Ohio State led to two touchdowns, a field goal and a missed field goal attempt. Ohio State didn't force a punt in the second half of its 2023 loss to Michigan, which reached the end zone just once during that span but had a 7-minute drive to set up a field goal. In the Oregon loss Oct. 12, Ohio State prevented points on three straight Ducks drives but allowed a touchdown and a field goal on the final two.
Ohio State's offense also struggled in crunch time, scoring only one total touchdown in the fourth quarter of the past two Michigan losses, the Georgia loss and the Oregon loss.
Oregon's offense was able to get big plays against star OSU corner Denzel Burke. Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire
"Everyone's got to do their job and produce in those moments and be accountable," Knowles told ESPN on Wednesday. "You can get people in the right places and not have people running around or trying to match personnel. What we're learning in those critical moments, it's about being set and ready to play ball. There's no magic formula. It's a matter of getting it done."
Although Ohio State was a play -- or maybe a second -- away from possibly beating Oregon, the game left questions about both scheme and personnel for the Buckeyes' defense. Oregon averaged 7.6 yards per play, had five drives of 60 yards or longer and did not allow a sack or commit a turnover.
Oregon went straight at Ohio State's secondary, especially standout cornerback Denzel Burke, a first-team All-Big Ten selection, who struggled to keep pace with Evan Stewart. The Ducks connected on four passes of 32 yards or longer -- to four different players, including a 69-yarder to Stewart and a 48-yard touchdown to Tez Johnson.
"The part that just stuck out to me was they just didn't seem to have anybody step up and make plays when they needed it," a Big Ten coordinator said of Ohio State. "They weren't winning up front. I thought they would kind of get after Oregon a little bit."
How Knowles matches the tone of the scheme with his personnel has come up at times during his mostly successful tenure. He came to Ohio State with a reputation for schematic creativity and havoc at Oklahoma State, which led the nation in sacks and ranked No. 2 nationally in tackles for loss per game in 2021, while also finishing No. 9 in points allowed.
"It was really exotic," a Big 12 offensive coordinator said of Knowles' Oklahoma State defenses. "They just played with an extra D-lineman, and we couldn't figure out where he lined up and why and how. We thought they just genuinely gave this guy the freedom to just line up and go wherever he wanted. We didn't know how to account for him in the run game or the pass game. So it made you bastardize all your rules, or you had to be really simple with what it was to account for him.
"I was certainly glad when [Knowles] left."
The question when Knowles came to Ohio State was whether he would maintain such a blend of defensive calls with more talented players. Could he achieve similar dominance while taking fewer risks and playing more straight up?
"I've dialed it back more than I ever have in my career to let the guys go out and make plays," Knowles told ESPN on Wednesday. "What we're finding in these matchup games is there are times when you have to turn it up and let them get after it."
Day said after the Oregon game of Ohio State's schematic choices, "We've got to make sure that we are changing up and making sure that it isn't just a four-man rush all the time."
Several sources brought up Georgia's innovative defensive scheme in its Oct. 19 takedown of Texas as a model for Ohio State. Georgia mixed up its pressures and flustered Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, finishing with seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss and eight quarterback pressures. Ohio State has good pressure numbers -- it is tied for 21st nationally in sacks per game and sixth in pressure rate -- outside of the Oregon game, the only time it has faced truly comparable talent across the line of scrimmage.
"You begin to wonder, 'OK, they've won in straight rush man, not a ton of blitzing, early in the season,' but when you face really good teams, you've got to mix it up a little bit, using some stunts, maybe some different packages up front," said Bobby Carpenter, a former standout linebacker for Ohio State and host on Sirius XM College Sports radio. "There's some risk-reward with that. Especially in the fourth quarter, if you haven't been giving a steady dose of different looks, then they may have a bead on you."
The defense responded last week with three sacks and 13 tackles for loss against Nebraska. Still, there are questions about whether Ohio State can find the right scheme and performance elements in its biggest games.
Penn State will provide a good test of whether Knowles can find the right scheme to counter. The Nittany Lions hired offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki because of his creativity and ability to generate big plays. Penn State is averaging 7.09 yards per play, which ranks seventh nationally and is up from 75th last season (5.61 ypp).
"It's a lot different," Knowles said Tuesday of Penn State's scheme. "There are multiple formations and shifts, I mean, all the time. All of that window dressing is to create stress on the defense."
Ohio State entered the season with an offensive two-deep envied by just about any team. Henderson and Judkins had 5,470 career rushing yards and 63 touchdowns. Howard, who led Kansas State to a Big 12 title in 2022, headlined a quarterback group with several capable options, including Alabama transfer Julian Sayin.
The Buckeyes lost Marvin Harrison Jr., selected fourth overall in the NFL draft, from what has been the nation's top wide receiver room, but added dynamic freshman Jeremiah Smith to join Egbuka and others. Smith headlined a 2024 recruiting class that included seven players ranked among ESPN's top 52 prospects. Day has signed a top-10 recruiting class each year he's been in Columbus.
"Personnel-wise, there's no doubt about it, that's an extremely talented group, from every position," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. "It's hard to recognize any weakness there."
But there were some concerns with the line, which Day highlighted during Big Ten media days. Offensive line performance and development has become a growing source of angst around Columbus. Although Ohio State's overall recruiting stands out, the team has had only one offensive lineman (Luke Montgomery) rank among the nation's top 125 recruits in the past three classes.
Yet Ohio State had optimism entering the fall with Donovan Jackson, Josh Simmons and Josh Fryar all returning, as well as the addition of Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin. But injuries have stung the group, as Simmons was lost for the season against Oregon, and Zen Michalski, who started in place of him against Nebraska, was carted off in the fourth quarter.
How will Saturday's top games affect the College Football Playoff chase? What are the current odds for the top four? The Allstate Playoff Predictor has the answers. Check back every week as the odds are updated following that week's games.
"They weren't elite last year, and it's pretty much the same crew," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. "They definitely aren't as good up front as they probably wish they were."
Another Big Ten coordinator added: "They're the weaker part of it, for some reason. You saw Nebraska match up well up in there."
Michalski is unlikely to return this week after being carted off the field in the Nebraska game, but Day admitted Tuesday he had his struggles against Nebraska, which had seven tackles for loss and held Ohio State to a season-low 64 rushing yards, less than half of the Buckeyes' total in any other game. The Buckeyes converted only 1 of 10 third-down chances against the Huskers.
Jackson, a first-team All-Big Ten guard, replaced Michalski against Nebraska and could do so again at Penn State, which has an elite pass rusher in Abdul Carter and ranks 19th nationally in pressure rate. Ohio State's strength up front has been protecting Howard, as it leads the nation in pressure rate and is tied for 13th in fewest sacks allowed per game.
"This isn't the National Football League, where if you do lose somebody, you can go out to the waiver wire and go find another player at that position," Kelly said. "You've got to be able to handle it at your position. We've lost a really good one in Josh, and then everybody else is fighting and scrapping to stay in there."
The run game, which felt like a guarantee with both Henderson and Judkins available, must deliver against a Penn State defense that led the nation in fewest rushing yards allowed in 2023 and hasn't fallen far this year, ranking No. 8.
"We can't live with the way we ran the ball last week," Kelly said. "You're going to have to win the rushing battle to win games in the Big Ten, so we certainly understand that. Penn State's defense is different than Nebraska's ... but we have to establish the run in this game."
Ohio State also must account for a Penn State defense talented enough to play the Buckeyes straight up. A coach who faced Ohio State earlier this fall noted that playing man-to-man defense is the best approach to limit busts.
"Chip does a good job with formations and shifts and motions and different personnel group things, so if you're trying to match all those patterns in zone, it makes it tough," the coach said. "But if you can play man and, 'You've got that guy, you've got that guy,' it's a little bit easier. That's where the line's weakness or strength comes in, because they're not in a situation where they can catch you misaligned.
"That's what Oregon did. They man-pressured a little bit and made Howard uncomfortable as the game went on."
When Knowles met the media Tuesday, he not surprisingly fielded several questions about Ohio State's defensive front -- its performance, rotations and what comes next. Wide receiver might be Ohio State's flashiest position group under Day, but none has generated more debate than the "Rushmen," under the tutelage of veteran defensive line coach Larry Johnson.
Heading into the 2023 season, the Buckeyes talked openly about being the nation's best defensive line, and for good reason. They had two former ESPN top-five recruits in Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, veteran tackles Michael Hall Jr., Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton, and others. But the dominance didn't come. Ohio State finished 64th nationally in sacks per game, tied for 71st in tackles for loss and 27th against the run.
Other than Hall, Ohio State returned the main pieces of its defensive front. The Buckeyes have leaned on their starters -- Sawyer and Tuimoloau on the edges, Williams and Hamilton inside -- even more so in recent weeks.
JT Tuimoloau broke out with big 2022 season, including a huge game against Penn State. Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire
"I'm comfortable with whatever Coach Johnson deems appropriate," Knowles said Tuesday of the line rotation. "He's around those guys all the time. He manages those guys, and he knows what he's doing."
Knowles added that "constant experimentation" continues, not only with the mainstays but other players such as Caden Curry, who recorded a sack against Marshall after lining up across from a guard. Tuimoloau and Sawyer have combined for 6.5 sacks and five quarterback hurries, while Williams, who some coaches think has the highest ceiling of all the defensive linemen, has added 2.5 sacks and four tackles for loss despite missing two games with an injury.
The question is whether Johnson, who established himself as one of the nation's premier defensive line coaches while at Penn State and amplified his profile at Ohio State -- mentoring standouts such as Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa and Chase Young -- can still get the most out of a group that, thus far, hasn't consistently met the hype.
Coaches note that Johnson often has linemen, even the tackles, lined up so wide to play the pass that they leave gaps open for designed or improvised runs. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel and Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola both found running room against the Buckeyes, combining for 62 yards on 13 carries. Penn State could exploit similar openings with dual-threat quarterback Beau Pribula, even if Drew Allar is healthy enough to play.
Tuimoloau on Saturday will return to the site of his best performance and among the best individual defensive efforts in Ohio State history. In 2022, he had two interceptions (including a pick-six), two sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and a pass deflection that led to another interception in a win over Penn State. But he hasn't had any other forced fumbles or interceptions in his career. Sawyer had a strong finish to last season, including three sacks against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl, but his career numbers -- 16.5 sacks, four forced fumbles -- are more solid than spectacular.
"Since the Bosa brothers and Chase Young, they were so lucky for so many years to have a four-man rush that they could do almost anything in the back end now and still get pressure," a former Big Ten coach said. "These two guys now [Tuimoloau and Sawyer], they're big names, but they're not even close to those three players."
Knowles described Tuimoloau's 2022 performance at Beaver Stadium as "epic" and almost impossible to replicate.
"That was above and beyond, but I always have high expectations of JT," Knowles said. "We can always count on him in those critical moments."
Ohio State hasn't looked like a superteam to date, but there's still plenty of time for a roster packed with potential. The Buckeyes have shown bursts of production, like four consecutive touchdown drives against Iowa -- within a span of 13:36 -- to blow open a close game.
"You look at the amount of NFL prospects on that offense, it's a helluva crew," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said.
The receivers jump out as Egbuka and Smith have 78 receptions for 1,169 yards and 14 touchdowns between them, while Carnell Tate has emerged as a strong third option for Howard. A Big Ten coach said of Smith, "He's the closest thing I've seen to Julio Jones," while a defensive coordinator added, "They're special, the three of them."
Even coaches who acknowledge the potential problems along the line also highlight just how many ways Ohio State can attack defenses.
"They're so explosive," a coach who faced Ohio State said. "They've got five or six guys on offense where [opponents] just don't have six or seven [defensive backs] who can play at that level. If Howard can just get the ball to those guys, they're one play away. They're all one broken tackle away from a 60-yard gain."
Will Howard came to Ohio State from Kansas State in last offseason's big portal splurge. Joseph Maiorana/Imagn Images
Despite last week's struggles against Nebraska, both Henderson and Judkins have been effective, averaging 7.6 and 6.5 yards per carry, respectively. They're also fresh, as neither has reached 15 carries in a game this fall.
"The thing that's undervalued for Ohio State is their backs are so good," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. "They're just special, and they split the carries. To Day's credit, he's quick to get the guys out of the game when they're up, so those guys won't have huge numbers, but they're damn good."
Howard, whom OSU went after in the portal after moving on from 2023 starter Kyle McCord, reaches a pivotal moment in his Buckeyes career, especially given his role at the end of the Oregon loss. He has played well overall, completing 74% of his passes for 1,795 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding five rushing touchdowns.
The Downington, Pennsylvania, native returns to his home state and faces a Penn State team that he grew up rooting for but that didn't pursue him in recruiting. Howard won't lack motivation Saturday, saying after the Nebraska win, "They didn't think I was good enough, but I guess we'll see."
"If you give him some different looks, he's going to throw it right at you sometimes," a Power 4 defensive coordinator said.
The Penn State game also carries tremendous significance for Day. Despite a 62-9 record, Day has been calloused by recent high-profile losses and recognizes the urgency to get the most from his team.
"Just like the Oregon game was, this game's been circled on our schedule," Day said. "We know what's at stake here. We've been in this situation before, so now it's time to go win this game and get a top-five victory."
Health questions abound in Ohio State vs. Penn State: Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar is a game-time decision against Ohio State with what looks like a left knee injury suffered against Wisconsin. But perhaps just as concerning are apparent injuries to Penn State defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and right tackle Anthony Donkoh. That's a possible three starters out at key positions against the No. 2 defense and a top-10 offense. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have significant injury issues themselves. Safety Lathan Ransom is day-to-day with an unspecified injury. Left tackle Josh Simmons was lost to a season-ending knee injury against No. 1 Oregon. His backup, Zen Michalski, was carted off the field late in the fourth quarter while making his first career start against Nebraska.
The game will still ride on Ohio State's superior speed on the perimeter. I don't usually make picks in this space, but for games of this magnitude, we'll make an exception: Ohio State 23, Penn State 20
Games of the Week
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State: I just wrote about how we've reached the time of year when we know so much more about teams, so why not lead this week's column with the big game with a billion questions? OK, a billion is stretching it, but Penn State QB Drew Allar is a game-time decision. Ohio State's starting left tackle might be you. I suspect Allar will start, even if he's not 100%, and Penn State is leaving his status in the air to force Ohio State to prepare for both him and Beau Pribula. While I think Penn State can win this game if forced to rely on Pribula, it has a much better chance of doing so with Allar. I know that's the kind of deep analysis you came here for.
Anyway, the biggest story of this game will be how Ohio State's offensive line looks against Penn State's front. To put it as kindly as possible, the Buckeyes' offensive line looked bad against Nebraska. The Buckeyes couldn't run the ball effectively at all, and Will Howard dealt with more pressure than he has all season. Well, Penn State's defensive line is a lot better than Nebraska's, and I have a tough time seeing a scenario where the Ohio State offensive line rallies enough to hold Abdul Carter and company at bay. I'm well aware of James Franklin's history against Ohio State, and while it terrifies me, the fact is I have more confidence in the Penn State offense than Ohio State's at the moment. I would have preferred to bet the under, but even with the questions, I don't see a betting edge to either side of the total. So, all I can do is hold my nose and make the best choice with the information available to me.The Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115) via Caesars
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6–1) at No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (7–0)
Saturday, noon ET, Fox
Three weeks after the Buckeyes ventured out west only to have their hopes for an unbeaten season dashed by Oregon, Ryan Day will take his team back on the road to face a top-five opponent Saturday. The undefeated Nittany Lions await with a chance to prove they are not only playoff worthy, but national title contenders.
Ohio State didn’t exactly inspire confidence that it had moved on from the heartbreak in Eugene, Ore., needing all four quarters to eke past Nebraska last week. The Buckeyes uncharacteristically struggled on the ground with standout running backs Quinshon Judkins (2.9) and TreVeyon Henderson (2.5) both averaging fewer than three yards per carry.
Penn State did the opposite coming out of a bye after an overtime scare on the road at USC, grinding down a hot Wisconsin team and pulling away in the fourth for a 28–13 victory. The schedule for the Nittany Lions from here is favorable with road trips to Purdue and Minnesota and home games against Washington and Maryland to close the regular season.
Unfortunately, standing in James Franklin’s way is a familiar foe—and one that’s gotten the better of him frequently during his tenure in Happy Valley. Penn State has won just once against Ohio State since Franklin took over a decade ago, back in 2016 on the infamous “Block Six.” Since then, the Buckeyes have won seven straight.
Player/Matchup to Watch: Ohio State offensive line vs. Penn State defensive front
The Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions have been exceptional on defense this season, ranking in the top five in the nation in yards allowed per game. However, it’s on the other side of the ball where Ohio State’s offensive line and rushing attack has some serious questions to answer after last week. Will Howard has been efficient in big games this season, but the true litmus test of whether or not Day’s offense is succeeding is how well things are going on the ground. Penn State is coming off of a smothering of Wisconsin in which its defense held Badgers ballcarrier Tawee Walker to just 59 yards on 22 attempts, tallying five tackles for loss in the win. If the Nittany Lions can duplicate that performance and keep the Buckeyes’ backs in check, Franklin may walk away with just his second win against his dreaded conference rival.
